Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
656 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IN THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS RAPIDLY
BECOME A CLASSIC SUPERCELL.  THE CAPE TO 700 MB
HAS JUMPED AHEAD OF THIS CELL TO 150 J/KG AND THE
TURN TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER MOTION HAS RESULTED
IN A VERY FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE WIND ENVIRONMENT
FOR TORNADOES.  THE CURRENT WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS CELL SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG AND LONG-LIVED
TORNADO COULD OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
INTO SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
        ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=61.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKALHOMA WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ARCING FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SOME FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...AND THE DRYLINE IS NOW EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM PAWHUSKA
TO TULSA TO MCALESTER TO HUGH BY 6 PM. RAPID MOISTURE RETURN HAS
OCCURED HEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE
55F-60F RANGE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
AFTER 2 PM...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AS STRONG WARMING WORKS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION JUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE GENERALLY
AFTER 3-4 PM...WITH THE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY
VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING BY MID-TO-LATE EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEST OF THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL QUICKLY
DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN AREAS
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF A PAWNEE TO HENRYETTA TO HUGO LINE. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING...OKCRFWTSA...FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE
IN THE DAY. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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