River Flood Warning 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 131436
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
OKLAHOMA...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR WATTS AFFECTING ADAIR COUNTY. 
  
OKC001-131506-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090413T1800Z/
/WTTO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
936 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR WATTS.
* AT  800 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.74 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR WATTS WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE AT 12.0 FEET LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR FROM THE ARKANSAS 
  BORDER TO CHEWEY BRIDGE.  EXTREME TURBULENCE WILL MAKE THE RIVER 
  UNSAFE FOR FLOATING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

...AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
CIRCULATION AROUND APPROACHING CENTER OF STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CEILINGS ACROSS MOST SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING TOWARD KMLC THIS EVENING. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG/DRIZZLE WILL MAINTAIN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS SHIFTED E OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
NOT BEFORE LEAVING BEHIND A GENERAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. ELY SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE A BIT GUSTIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AS IMPRESSIVE SFC PRESSURE FALLS (3-7MB/3 HR)
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF FAR ERN OK/NW AR.

UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS STILL WELL TO OUR W ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK WHERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR. WITH COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPS FILTERING
E...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SERN OK/RED RIVER REGION.  UPPER
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS SE KS/SRN MO LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER OUR
AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING.

12Z LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS OVER THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF NEXT SWRN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM...BUT WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF. LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  53  39  68 /  50  50  10   0
FSM   47  56  39  67 /  40  40  10   0
MLC   43  55  39  71 /  40  30  10   0
BVO   41  54  37  69 /  70  50  10   0
FYV   41  51  36  62 /  50  50  10   0
BYV   42  50  36  60 /  60  50  10   0
MKO   44  53  38  67 /  50  40  10   0
MIO   42  51  38  66 /  70  50  10   0
F10   43  54  40  68 /  40  40  10   0
HHW   48  60  40  72 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
451 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES BY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
REMAINS A LIMITED RISK THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD ATTAIN SEVERE
LIMITS... WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAJOR THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED... THE MAJORITY OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL IMMEDIATELY RUN OFF... CREATING A LIMITED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... BRINGING ANOTHER EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN... BUT ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

OKZ060-064-066-122230-
CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-
440 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE...CREEK AND SOUTHWESTERN TULSA

AT 439 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES WEST OF KELLYVILLE TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MOUNDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WEST TULSA...
LIBERTY...HECTORVILLE...BIXBY...GLENPOOL...MOUNDS...KIEFER...
KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

PEA SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS IN BRISTOW.  THESE
STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3612 9620 3591 9580 3591 9582 3586 9582
      3586 9581 3574 9619 3593 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 243DEG 26KT 3592 9646 3578 9619