Flood Watch 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHORTLY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A TORNADO WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF BEING ISSUED FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION... EFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY. AS OF EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
INTERSTATE 40. CLOUD COVER BROKE EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY. CLIMBING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS HAVE ADDED TO AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES GET CLOSE TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SHEAR WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY... PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
EVENT. TORNADOES WILL BE MORE LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH ANY
DISCREET SUPERCELLS. OVERNIGHT... A MOSTLY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP... WITH STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS... ALTHOUGH BRIEF SPIN-UPS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY... WITH 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS COMMON
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR
ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TOMORROW... WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN COLD AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM... TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA... BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  57  36  62 /  90  50   0  10
FSM   47  58  35  66 / 100  40   0  10
MLC   49  60  36  62 /  90  30   0  10
BVO   44  55  30  64 /  90  60   0  10
FYV   46  52  31  60 / 100  60   0  10
BYV   46  49  33  58 / 100  70   0  10
MKO   46  56  34  62 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   46  52  34  62 / 100  70   0  10
F10   45  57  35  62 /  90  40   0  10
HHW   50  67  39  62 /  90  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..WEST CENTRAL
                                AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS STORM INITIATION HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
PEAK DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIAL
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL...AS
LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AS THE
EVENT DEVELOPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LARGE AND DAMAGING
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. A TORNADIC THREAT
WILL ALSO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 3 OR 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING.. ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SPOTTER COORDINATION SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS STORM
MOTIONS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL MAKE SPOTTING DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST. INCREASING WINDS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
RAISE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS GRASSES WILL DRY QUICKLY
DESPITE THE PREVIOUS RAINS. A COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

OKZ049-073-075-102045-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN
     LATIMER

AT 210 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF DUNBAR...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...YANUSH...HIGGINS...DAMON...GOWEN...
STANLEY...DUNBAR AND SARDIS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3496 9546 3486 9520 3441 9547 3448 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 202DEG 48KT 3453 9553