Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS74 KTSA 101534
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

ARC033-101543-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-090910T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD AR-
1034 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND REPORTS 
INDICATE THAT PREVIOUS FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
TULSA.

LAT...LON 3573 9391 3573 9396 3567 9398 3566 9407
      3558 9408 3558 9402 3549 9403 3545 9407
      3543 9415 3538 9415 3535 9429 3545 9439
      3540 9443 3553 9445 3576 9423 3576 9389

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

ONGOING CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A TRAILING
BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SPARK CONVECTION FURTHER WEST. BULK OF
IMPACTS WILL BE TOWARD KFSM/KMLC WITH SCATTERED STORMS BY
AFTERNOON POSSIBLE MOST ANYWHERE. WIDELY VARYING CEILINGS THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT EXCEPT FAR NW ARKANSAS WHERE
LESSER CLOUD EXPECTED BUT WITH FOG INTO IFR RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A LOT HAS CHANGED IN MY THINKING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT THE ONE
THING THAT HAS STAYED THE SAME IS THAT I THINK THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE WET.  INSTEAD OF A COLD UPPER LOW DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT...THE CULPRIT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WEAK
UPPER LOW WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

IN THE NEAR TERM KEPT POPS TODAY AND LESS SO TOMORROW AS SOME
DRYING WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.  THIS DRYING WILL
NOT LAST FOR LONG AS MOISTURE WILL SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. AFTER PLAYING GAMES WITH THE MODELS THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...TONIGHT BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TOWARD THE NAM IN THE NEAR TERM AND A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD
THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST.

COULD NOT SEE GOING POPLESS FOR VERY LONG AND THE ORIENTATION OF
THE GFS POPS ON SUNDAY SEEMED A LITTLE TOO SKEWED TO THE EAST.
DID KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE
THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY OF THINGS.  LIKE THE GFS FIGURE THINGS
WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND DESPITE THE INSISTENCE
OF THE ECMWF HAVE KEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MOS.  PLENY OF
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND A LITTLE MORE SUN
AND LESS RAIN WILL ALLOW A LITTLE BIT OF A WARM UP FRIDAY.
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THROUGH
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  65  86  67 /  30  20  10  20
FSM   80  65  88  67 /  50  20  10  20
MLC   82  65  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
BVO   81  61  87  61 /  30  20  10  20
FYV   78  61  85  60 /  30  20  10  20
BYV   77  61  83  61 /  30  20  10  20
MKO   79  64  86  65 /  40  20  10  20
MIO   82  61  87  63 /  30  20  10  20
F10   79  64  85  66 /  40  30  20  20
HHW   85  68  83  67 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD.  STORMS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY REMAINING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.  MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.
THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
AS THE GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN SLOW.  THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK WINDS ALOFT...
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  AS THIS EVENT
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.