Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT PRESENT. VISIBILITY
WILL BE REDUCED BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT MLC AND FSM SITES
BY 10Z. PREVAILING MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WILL RESULT
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...
GRIDS ARE IN DECENT SHAPE AND SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT UPDATE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A COMBINATION WEAK
SURFACE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
BENTONVILLE ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF TULSA AND TO
OKLAHOMA CITY.

THIS BOUNDARY IS SAGGING SOUTH WITH TIME AND EXPECT THE MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
PREVENTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALLOWING THE STORMS TO PRODUCE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

THIS COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND SMALL CORES OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AN EXAMPLE OF HOW LOCALIZED THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN WAS AT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TULSA THAT MEASURED 1.09 INCH
OF OF RAIN...ONE INCH FELL IN JUST 18 MINUTES. ONLY 3.5 MILES AWAY...AT
TULSA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...A TRACE OF RAIN WAS REPORTED.

MUCH OF TULSA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 244 SAW AROUND AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN THIS EVENING. HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BY RADAR
AND THE HIGHEST MEASURED AMOUNT WAS AT INOLA MESONET SITE WITH 1.57 INCHS
THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2009/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE FIRST
LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF I-40...THE SECOND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z
NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES AND WILL BE IMPACTING KTUL/KRVS SITES AT
VALID TIME OF 00Z. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES AFTER 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME MANY AREAS WILL SEE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN
NORTHERN AREAS WITH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH OF I-40
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
435 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH
FOCUS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOST STORMS WILL FORM AND
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH BOUNDARY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BECOMING VERY DIFFUSE DURING THE
EVENING. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH
OF LAST NIGHTS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. BUT...WITH
A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET AND RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH LESS AND IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WINDS AND HAIL BEING
THE MORE OBVIOUS THREATS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A CONTINUED WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBILITY OF FLASH AND/OR RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF A CONCERN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CDT WED SEP 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SALINA                  36.29N 95.15W
09/09/2009                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE CREEKS OVER THEIR BANKS CREATING SIGNIFICANT
            FLASH FLOODING IN SALINA. KENWOOD RD AND HIGHWAY 82
            CLOSED IN TOWN. MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY.

&&

DMJ