Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS74 KTSA 111534
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

OKC023-111930-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-090511T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW OK-
1034 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
CHOCTAW COUNTY...

AT 1031 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN COVERING MUCH OF CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH THE 
WIDESPREAD RAIN AREA MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. RADAR INDICATES THAT 1 
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER 1 TO 
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 230 PM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE KENT...MESSER...SOPER...BOSWELL...FORT TOWSON...SAWYER...
GOODLAND AND HUGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY...SO DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE
ROAD. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST
SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH
YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...MOST
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN TULSA.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9552 3388 9554 3394 9558 3389 9569
      3390 9575 3387 9577 3388 9584 3394 9594
      3417 9594 3416 9516 3394 9514 3396 9523
      3390 9525 3389 9532 3386 9534 3386 9546

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
728 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
BASED UPON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS IN PRECIP...WILL SEND AN UPDATE
TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR TODAY. THE REST OF THE GRIDS LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN THE PROCESS OF
ORGANIZING JUST TO OUR WEST AT THIS TIME AND APPEARS DESTINED TO
PLOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS SEEN THE GREATEST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
AND CANNOT HANDLE MUCH MORE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ON THE MOVE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE TRICKY AS
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS RISING
OVERNIGHT ONCE IT PASSES. A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN OR NEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO YIELD ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BY FRIDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN BUT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO OCCUR BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS A BIG
UPPER TROF SETS UP TO OUR EAST. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SETUP
OVER OUR AREA FINALLY GIVING US A CHANCE TO DRY OUT...ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN RESULT IN A FEW SURPRISES
EVERY NOW AND THEN.

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND POPS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  55  72  69 /  40  50  60  10
FSM   65  55  72  64 /  70  50  60  10
MLC   65  57  77  70 /  90  50  40  10
BVO   69  53  70  66 /  40  50  70  20
FYV   65  54  65  61 /  40  50  60  10
BYV   66  53  64  61 /  40  50  60  20
MKO   66  55  73  67 /  40  50  60  10
MIO   70  53  68  64 /  40  50  60  20
F10   66  56  75  68 /  60  50  50  10
HHW   65  59  79  69 /  90  50  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
519 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...FLOOD WATCH TODAY PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 7PM...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRETCHED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODS. ISOLATED AREAS THERE COULD RECEIVE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.  AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT THE RAIN AREA
WILL EXPAND NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL...
THE CHANCE THAT A STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IS NOT ZERO.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
OUR UNUSUALLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS WEEK.
RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THAT FRONT STALLING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
MORE HEAVY RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.