Excessive Heat Warning 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY TO REPLACE THE PREVIOUS
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AREA...AND UPGRADE TULSA COUNTY TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING GIVEN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
OF TEMP/DEWPOINTS GIVEN PREVIOUS RAINFALL...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY REACH
OR EXCEED 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL...WITH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OKMULGEE...MUSKOGEE...
WAGONER AND MAYES COUNTY WHERE LIMITED PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TO SOME
EXTENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND OVERALL AS
UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN ZONES. THIS
COULD ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THIS
AREA IF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD...SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST GENERALLY STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH
TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78 100  78 101 /  10   0  10  20
FSM   73  98  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   72  97  74  98 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70 100  71 101 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   70  96  71  96 /  10   0  20  20
BYV   70  95  73  95 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   72 100  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   74  97  73  96 /  10  10  20  20
F10   72  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   74  97  74  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1258 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE MAKING THEIR RETURN TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT
7 DAYS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 105 TO 110 RANGE
FROM TOMORROW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS TO PARTS OF THE
REGION AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ONLY MINIMAL RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY PERSONNEL SHOULD READY PLANS FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT RELATED
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD BE NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THIS WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

ARZ029-OKZ072-076-032030-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
241 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 241 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COTTONWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...MULDROW...POCOLA...
BRADEN...ARKOMA...MILL CREEK...HACKETT...BARLING...JENSON...
BONANZA...JENNY LIND...RYE HILL AND CENTRAL CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3533 9422 3515 9436 3533 9470 3543 9457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 295DEG 14KT 3536 9457