Wind Advisory 9, NWS Topeka, KS

Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

000 
WWUS73 KTOP 042352
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050100-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090405T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
652 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
SUSTAINED 30 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS REMAIN FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING
HEATING SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS MIXING DOWN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND VEERING THE
SFC WINDS A BIT. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND TAF SITES. HAVE A CB
GROUP IN AT TAF SITES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER LACK OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRECLUDES GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS AFFECTING TAF SITES. TSTM CHANCES SHOULD BE
BETTER RESOLVED FOR 18Z ISSUANCE. THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BUT DEEPER
COLD AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND THIS LEADING EDGE. BETTER SURGE OF COLD
AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN MVFR STRATA CU DECK.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ATTM...
WITH 989MB SFC LOW OVER LAMAR CO. UPPER WAVE NOTED MOVING INTO
SW CO...WHILE PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE TO 50KTS OR
MORE ACROSS THE CTRL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
HOWEVER...AS 60F HOLDS NEAR BROWNSVILLE AND 50 F CONTOUR STILL
AROUND THE AUSTIN TX AREA.

BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ATTM. EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. GOOD MIXING TO
850MB WILL BRING HIGHS NEAR 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
THINK THAT ISENTROPIC SHOWERS EARLY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS FOR WINDS...THINK WE WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BUT
WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PASS ALONG TO
DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR.  OTHER CONCERN TODAY WOULD BE WITH FIRE
DANGER IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER GREEUP IS
UNDERWAY AND WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 30F OR HIGHER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DO NOT THINK A RFW IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE MOISTURE
STARVED DESPITE GOOD DYNAMICS AND TIMING ON MOVING INTO EASTERN
KS. MAY HAVE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE KS NE BORDER
BUT CHANCES WERE SCARCE ENOUGH TO PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST.
FRONTAL ZONE SURGES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS JUST BEFORE
00Z...AND DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECT ENOUGH SHEAR TO GET A FEW
STORMS GOING OR EVEN FORM INTO A LINE AS THE COLDFRONT/DRYLINE
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS
LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. WINDS MAY BE PRIMARY
CONCERN AS STORMS MIX DOWN STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AS THEY PASS.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNT OF WIND TO EXPECT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE FA...AND THEREFORE WENT WITH A GENERAL 36F CUT OFF
FOR SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PAINTED SOME SNOW ACROSS FAR NW
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. WIND BEHIND THE SYSTEM QUITE
STRONG...WITH FAR NW COUNTIES DEPICTING SUSTAINED 30KTS IN THE
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KS.

SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED LIGHT POPS AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A FEW WARM WEEKEND
DAYS...MAY HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL TENDER VEGETATION TO PROTECT BY
EARLY WEEK.  67

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATES LOWEST GATE READING 50 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. WITH NEAR SFC WINDS BACKED TO NEARLY DUE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS...SOME DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
EXIST WITHIN THE LOWEST 2 KFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THIS COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO MIX
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TOWARDS THE SFC...SO EXPECT
WINDS TO PICK UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE ARE STILL SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER TAF
SITES...BUT WITH LIMITED ACCESS TO MOISTURE NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PANNING OUT TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
507 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
507 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA...AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN KANSAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODDY. THESE
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.