Wind Advisory 11, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS73 KTOP 241619
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1119 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY DEEP MIXING SHOULD HELP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

KSZ035>040-054>056-058-059-250000-
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0011.090424T1700Z-090425T0000Z/
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-
FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
1119 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS SUNSET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER
LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE
TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...AND DOWN POWER LINES.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS73 KTOP 250000
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
700 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009


KSZ035>040-054>056-058-059-250100-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-090425T0000Z/
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-
FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
700 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS.
07Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN CA. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SETTING UP A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN US. THE NAM IS THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND WAS NOT USED PAST 24 HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST DIFFICULTY IS PLACEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AN EML IS ANTICIPATED TO
CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE CAP GETS ERODED AWAY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. BECAUSE OF THIS AND STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE WITH
IN THE TROUGH AXIS...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES CONVERGENCE INTO THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEB AND NORTHERN KS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS INITIATE.

WILL ISSUE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
LEE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING TO NEAR 50KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THAT MOMENTUM
TRANSFERS WILL BRING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TO PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL KS. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG FURTHER WEST AND NORTH IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER IN ORDER TO MATCH UP
WITH ICT...WILL TAKE THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THINK THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN A BAND NEAR THE TURNPIKE WHERE THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL BE.

THE SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND SIT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEE NO REASON TO
REMOVE POPS FOR ANY OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY LARGE SCALE
FEATURE THAT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. COOLED
TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING. THEN WARM TEMPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS
THE FRONT GETS PUSHED BACK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLJ INCREASES
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH INVERSIONS IN PLACE HAVE ADDED LLWS TO TAFS
UNTIL WINDS MIX MORE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT AN INCREASE
NEAR 25-30MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT WILL KEEP THE SUSTAINED BUT LOSE SOME GUSTINESS AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN. CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR MIDNIGHT WELL
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-242030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR
THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MAY BE SEVERE.
ALSO...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT SOME FLOODING CONCERNS MAY
ARISE. STAY TUNED TO UPDATED FORECASTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DETAILS UNFOLD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.