Tornado Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SHOWERS INVOF A WMFNT WERE MOVING NE ACROSS THE CWA.  PLUME
OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS SHRINKING
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LLVL
FRONTOGENISIS/H85 MOIST TRANSPORT VECTS INCREASE AND A 35-40KT LLVL
JET MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL KS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL CLEAR IN TIME TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY SO
MORE THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SALLY

MONDAY-TUESDAY...500MB PATTERN INITIALLY DEFINED BY WESTERN
TROUGHING WITH AN EVENTUAL CUTOFF LOW WEST OF THE SO CAL COAST...AND
NEARLY STAGNANT CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LIKELY EACH OF
THESE DAYS. MID TO UPPER 90S HIGHS LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. IF THE
GROUND IS ABLE TO DRY OUT A BIT THESE DAYS...SOME 100F READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM MIDWEEK...AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WITH
ONLY MODEST FORCING AND DIFFUSE LL CONVERGENCE...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT...AND WARM ADVECTION MAY SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THEREAFTER...CLOSED LOW OFF THE
WESTERN CONUS EJECTS EASTWARD AS NORTHERN STREAM LOW DIGS INTO THE
PAC NORTHWEST. THIS SERVES TO DAMPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...AND
SEND A SECOND FRONT INTO THE REGION. TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE STILL
IN QUESTION...BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PROXIMITY OF SFC
BOUNDARY...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
90+ MAX TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK.

KONOP

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN RAIN.

A WMFT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING.  TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO A SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT.  DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS AROUND
SUNRISE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF FOG AS BUFKIT
LLVL SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES INCREASE.  WIND MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR FOG
FORMATION SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

SALLY

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
431 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

KSZ037-054-202200-
LYON-MORRIS-
431 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEAST MORRIS AND NORTHWEST LYON
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 500 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MORRIS AND NORTHWEST LYON COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE AMERICUS
DUNLAP...BUSHONG AND ALLEN.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING NEEDS TO BE ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
554 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

KSZ055-058-202330-
COFFEY-OSAGE-
554 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR OSAGE AND COFFEY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 630 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE BETO JUNCTION...WAVERLY AND MELVERN. MOTORISTS ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 152 AND 167 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 W WAVERLY             38.39N 95.68W
06/20/2009                   COFFEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&