Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
247 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS CWA ATTM...CURRENTLY JUST PASSING
MANHATTAN. TOP 18 UTC SOUNDING INDICATED AIRMASS VERY CAPPED WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF SURFACE HEATING HAVING ENOUGH ENERGY TO INITIATE
CONVECTION AWAY FRONT THE FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR
EXIST SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...AND LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT FOR
THIS PORTION OF KANSAS WILL BE A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ALONG OR JUST
PROCEEDING THE COLD FRONT. HIGH RES ARW WRF SUGGESTS INITIATION
AFTER 21 UTC IN SOUTH EAST KANSAS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A QUIET POST-FRONTAL
DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

HARDING

THURSDAY NIGHT...A 5H TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
FRI. THE LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS
WESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS INCREASES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ALONG WITH LLJ WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN TX
AND OK NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA AHEAD OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE
LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH AROUND 21Z AS THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH 00Z SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
5H TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE OF
2,000 TO 3,000 J/KG AND 0-6 KFT BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 40 KTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE VERY LOW...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...THOUGH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT MAY WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S IF WE SEE MORE INSOLATION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND AMPLIFY WHILE A 5H RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP
THE CWA DRY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE 5H RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN AT
TAF SITES IS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT ALL 3 LOCATIONS TO SEE
PASSAGE AROUND 20-21 UTC. POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IN
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 330 DEGREES AOB 15 KNOTS. MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS WILL ALSO
PERSIST THOUGH THE EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

HARDING

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HARDING/GARGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-142030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
326 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             1 S MELVERN             38.49N 95.64W
05/13/2009  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             3 S MELVERN             38.46N 95.63W
05/13/2009  E2.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             4 E MELVERN             38.51N 95.56W
05/13/2009  E1.25 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE