Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 240502
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

KSC197-240511-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-090324T0515Z/
WABAUNSEE-
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MORRIS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3879 9594 3894 9594 3905 9577 3889 9554
      3874 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 235DEG 39KT 3885 9585

$$

KSC139-177-240515-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-090324T0515Z/
SHAWNEE-OSAGE-
1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND SOUTHERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AUBURN...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TOPEKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUBURN...CARBONDALE...SOUTHWEST TOPEKA...BERRYTON AND PAULINE.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 177.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9594 3894 9594 3905 9577 3889 9554
      3874 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 235DEG 39KT 3885 9585

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
820 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST TRENDS AND 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

01Z ANALYSIS INDICATES PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MANHATTAN AND INTO DICKINSON COUNTY. PACIFIC
FRONT AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT VORT
LOBE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS
TIME. 00Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES OF 250 TO
500 J/KG...A DECREASE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS.
MUCAPE VALUES HAVE DECREASED AS WELL INTO THE 500 TO 750 J/KG
RANGE. MUCAPE VALUES ARE CONTAINED ALONG A NARROR CORRIDOR RIGHT
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING NEAR
THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT INTERSECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. WOULD
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK NORTH ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING PACIFIC FRONT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H300 JET OVER THE
CWA...AND CONTINUED STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WOULD
ANTICIPATE CONTINUED...BUT LIKELY SUB SEVERE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND PRIMARILY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
FORWARD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. UNTIL FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS NON ZERO...SO TORNADO WATCH
WILL CONTINUE JUST IN CASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE WILL START TO LOOK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THIS PACIFIC FRONT DOES
NOT MOVE HERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER ISSUANCE. STILL PLANNING ON LINE OF
STORMS AT TOP/FOE SITES 02-05Z WITH SOME ELEVATED NEARBY STORMS
UNTIL THEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY AS THE
BOUNDARY PASSES AND DIMINISH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST ARE STRONG
GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 56 KT WIND AT 1500FT HAVE
COMBINED TO PRODUCE HIGH WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE FRONT COLD FRONT RACES EASTWARD AND THE ISOALLOBARIC COUPLET
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRES AT 7
PM AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...HOWEVER...SOME COUNTIES IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA MAY STILL HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WARNING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BY THE EXPIRATION TIME.

INITIAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIATION OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE LINEAR AND THUS A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT NORTH OF I-70.
FARTHER SOUTH...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATE
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT HANGS UP IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. IN CONTRAST...THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AND TEMPS FALLING BACK
INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNRISE. ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A COOL BLUSTERY
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR
OUR CWA. FOLLOWING A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S...HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCLUDES A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

STARK

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST PROBLEMS RELATED TO WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING.  TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN WINDS OF 35 GUSTING TO NEAR 45 KTS AT
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND GRADIENT WEAKENS.  WITH APPROACH
OF FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH A FEW HOURS OF
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WHILE THERE MAY BE POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
STORMS...HAVE MAINLY KEPT WITH MVFR TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WESTERLY WINDS AT SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY
FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
141 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-241845-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
141 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 7
PM CDT. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO CREATED A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK AREA. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE
ATTEMPTED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. LATER THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA CAUSING THE SUPERCELLS TO
CONGEAL INTO A LINE MAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME LARGE HAIL. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LOOK TO
HAVE THE MOST PROLONGED TORNADO THREAT FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1047 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
03/23/2009  M1.52 INCH       RILEY              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORTED BY STATE CLIMATOLOGIST

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1104 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             2 NNW WILSEY            38.66N 96.69W
03/23/2009  E0.88 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1116 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

KSZ037-054-240445-
LYON-MORRIS-
1116 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MORRIS AND LYON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MORRIS AND NORTHWEST LYON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE DUNLAP...BUSHONG
AND ALLEN.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1118 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

KSZ038-039-240445-
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
1118 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SHAWNEE AND WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SHAWNEE AND EASTERN WABAUNSEE
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE KEENE...DOVER AND MAPLE HILL. MOTORISTS
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 340 AND 349 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

LEIGHTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     HAIL             1 S BUSHONG             38.63N 96.26W
03/23/2009  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

KSZ037-054-240515-
LYON-MORRIS-
1148 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MORRIS AND LYON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MORRIS AND NORTHWEST LYON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE DUNLAP.

LEIGHTON