Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NEBRASKA ATTM...WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH.  PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF KICKING OFF STORMS IN
INSTABILITY AXIS.  TURNING OF THE WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
MAKING FOR ENHANCED ROTATION...AND QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF CU IMPLIES
BETTER STRETCHING THROUGH THE COLUMN.  WILL MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH AN OUTER CHANCE OF A BRIEF WEAK SPINUP NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS
ARE SLOW MOVING AND MAY SLIDE OVER SAME AREA.

MAIN UPPER LOW DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW. MID LEVEL FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ONCE AGAIN
SHUNTED FARTHER WEST OF OUR CWA...SO PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ITSELF AND LEAD IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  HAVE BEEN A BIT BROADBRUSH ABOUT POPS BUT
CARRYING MID CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MODELS STILL DIFFERING
SOMEWHAT ON PLACEMENT OF BETTER QPF.  THINK WELL SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER NUMBERS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL BUT COULD GET
SOME ENHANCEMENT IN CENTRAL COUNTIES IF BOUNDARY COMES SLIGHTLY
FARTHER EAST.  HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSIDERING
CLOUDS...THEN COOL HIGHS ONLY MIXED TO 900MB IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. 67

EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE U.S. INTERIOR HIGHLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ASCENT
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPEARS STRONGER AND MODELS FAILED TO SUGGEST A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF WEATHER IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

TRICK TO FORECAST WILL BE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS.
COMPLEX IS A SLOW MOVER UP IN NEBRASKA AND SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS
SOUTH. CIGS AT THIS TIME ARE RUNNING 004-009 WIDESPREAD WITH THE
SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH A 08-09Z START TIME FOR CIGS BLO010 AND
MONITOR FOR ONSET OF PRECIP. MODELS DIFFER ON HEAVIER SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THUNDER MORE LIKELY FARTHER WEST WHERE INSTABILITY IS
BETTER. EXPECT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT SITES MAY GET A BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWER BUT WILL SAVE TIMING FOR NEXT ISSUANCE AS TIMING BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-042100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CLOUD
BASES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

KSZ008-032045-
REPUBLIC-
317 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR REPUBLIC COUNTY...

THROUGH 345 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PEA TO HALF INCH SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE NARKA...MUNDEN...CUBA AND BELLEVILLE.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

KSZ008-032145-
REPUBLIC-
358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR REPUBLIC COUNTY...

THROUGH 445 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF REPUBLIC COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE REPUBLIC AND COURTLAND.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
359 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

KSZ008-032145-
REPUBLIC-
359 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR REPUBLIC COUNTY...

THROUGH 445 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE AGENDA
AND NORWAY.

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