Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
11Z PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THE 850 FRONT IS SOUTH OF MHK AND IN THE
VCNTY OF TOP AND FOE...BASICALLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND TURNING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS STJ AND DMX. MEANWHILE THE SFC TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTHEAST OF TOP AND FOE. BELIEVE THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z NAM HAD 850 FRONT AND SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
WHAT 11Z SFC OBS AND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST. WITH MODELS FORECASTING
THESE FEATURES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...THINK THE PROB THAT
SOMETHING WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS IS LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP A VFR FORECAST GOING DURING THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW
CONVECTION OUT WEST EVOLVES AS POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODELS /SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK/ LEFT VCTS IN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

WOLTERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../255 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009/
FCST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHCS TODAY/TONIGHT.

06Z SFC MAP SHOWED A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MN
SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NE INTO CENTRAL KS. 850MB PROFILERS SHOW
WIDESPREAD 30-40KT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF KS IN ADVANCE OF
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS MOVING OUT OF CO/WY AND ENHANCING A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NE CO EARLY THIS MORNING.

NAM/GFS MOS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON HIGHER PRECIP CHCS TONIGHT
HOWEVER GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. PREFER THE NAM THIS FCST IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TUES.

TODAY...NEXT WAVE NOW MOVING OUT OF CO/WY SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONTINUED WAA IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
ATOP THE DIFFUSE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCT STORMS. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE COMPLEX NOW ACROSS NE CO WILL CONGEAL INTO A
LONGER LIVED CLUSTER THAT WOULD IMPACT OUR CWA BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
TO MONITOR GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF WAA IN PLACE.  DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF SUN...WE COULD SEE 90S YET AGAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FCST TO
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...850 THETAE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH
850-700MB WAA FCST TO INCREASE AS THE MID LVL TROUGH APPROACHES.
LIKELY PRECIP CHCS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN UPPER DIV AND PERSISTENCE
OF MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 925-700MB
COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.

TUES-FRI...MID LVL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PASS TUES A.M. BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIP FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR AVG TEMPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN 850MB TEMPS.

CO

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110900-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
348 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH. ANY STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IF THAT COMPLEX OF STORMS DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE OR TWO INCHES COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1250 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E COUNCIL GROVE       38.65N 96.42W
08/10/2009  E60 MPH          MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTS MARBLE SIZED HAIL

&&

MRC

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