Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATES FOR THE 18 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF TSRA OVER FAR NE KANSAS WILL STAY FAR AWAY FROM ALL OF THE
TERMINAL SITES.  WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES DRY THROUGH 18Z AS TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN.  IF ELEVATED CONVETION GETS GOING THIS EVENING THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE CAN BETTER REFLECT TIMING AND COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD.  BUFKIT
MOMENTUM XFR SHOWS SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS ON THURS LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL ADD THAT TO THE TAFS.

SALLY
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN MCS HAS PROPAGATED SOUTH ALONG THE MO RIVER AND IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IS APPROACHES FAR NORTHEAST KS. ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION THAT INITIATED OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB.

FOR TODAY...THINK CONVECTION WILL CLIP NORTHEAST KS AND MOVE EAST
INTO MO BEFORE 7 AM. BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE STORMS FURTHER
UPSTREAM DO AS THE MOVE IN BEHIND THE MCS. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS FOR POTENTIAL OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB TO TURN RIGHT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LEAD MCV. ALSO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING IN
CASE ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM WESTERN KS MOVES IN. OTHERWISE
THINK THE DAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART.
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 850 TEMPS A
TAD COOLER...AND MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST KS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE NAM PERSISTS IN DEVELOPING A NARROW
BAND OF PRECIP WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. THE 315K ISENTROPIC SFC
INDICATES SOME DECENT LIFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTIVE OF
SOME MODEST ELEVATED CAPE. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS MORNINGS
PRECIP VERY WELL...SO CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF QPF IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH...NEVERTHELESS THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ARE PLAUSIBLE. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY AS AN EML WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 16C ADVECT OVER THE AREA. SO
UNLESS SOME REMNANT ELEVATED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS THU...EXPECTED THE DAY TIME HOURS TO BE DRY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO REMOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS
PUSHED SOUTH WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CAUSES
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO VEER ALMOST DUE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THIS...LEFT POPS AS SLIGHT FOR NOW.

WARMEST TEMPS CONTINUE TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 STILL LOOK LIKELY
ON THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT TO
SET UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. FOR
NOW OPTED TO BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE COOL DOWN NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SATURDAY.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-090915-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
403 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WOLTERS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>