Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT CONTINUES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS CATCHING A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.

REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CAP IS NEARLY ERODED AND ISOLD CELLS DEVELOPING NORTH ALONG STRONG
OUTFLOW AND TO OUR SOUTH ALONG PREVIOUS NIGHTS OUTFLOW.  TEMPS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND HEAT INDICES
ARE NEARING THE 105 MARK.

EXPECT ISOLD ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
COVERAGE NORTH WHERE SHORTWAVE ENHANCING CONVECTION THERE. STORM
MOVEMENT OF THE CLUSTER SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST AND WILL CLIP NE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES VERY STRONG AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WEATHER NEXT 24HRS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
MESOSCALE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS IN SE NEBRASKA WILL CLIP
THE NE AS WELL AS PUT DOWN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW INTO OUR AREA. COULD
ALSO LEAVE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT BOOST IN THE DEWPOINTS AS A RESULT. APPEARS AS
THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH UPPER RIDGING
SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO. AS A RESULT EXPECT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD.  HAVE PAINTED HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY OUT WEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER NC KS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS CINH WILL BE MINIMAL IN THAT AREA.  THEN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  HAVE
NOT EXTENDED HEAT WARNING AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
LOOK AT THE NEED FOR IT TONIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES THEN EXIST AS TO TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMING THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. 12Z NAM MUCH SLOWER THAN 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT.  NAM HAS BOUNDARY IN NC KS AT 00Z SUN
WHILE GFS HAS IT ALMOST OUT OF SE KS.  ECMWF MUCH CLOSER TO GFS IN
SPEED AND HAVE USED THAT AS THE BASIS FOR WIND SHIFT TIMING.
THIS...OF COURSE...HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDICES AND
PRECIP CHANCES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.  WITH EXPECTED FASTER
MOVEMENT...HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

WE THEN GO INTO NNWLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THEN...WARM
ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WOULD BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.  TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER
WITH MAINLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS VARIABLE IN THE PERIOD AS AREA EXPERIENCES OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MHK REMAINS WESTERNMOST FROM CURRENT OUTFLOWS AND WILL KEEP
PREVAILING SW. EXPECT STORMS MAIN TRACK TO BE ACROSS FAR NE KS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS CAP BREAKS. WILL
CARRY CB AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT TO BE ISOLD OR FOCUSED ON A
BOUNDARY...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN TAF SITES. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7
PM THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-251000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
355 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NIGHTTIME HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...WITH AN
EXTENSION OF THE HEAT WARNING POSSIBLE IN LATER FORECASTS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

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