Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LEAD 5H TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NE AND WILL CAUSE
THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING. A STRONG 45 KT 850MB JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEEP GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENTED
STRONGER SFC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON THUS SFC BASED CAPES WERE ONLY
IN THE 800 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. BULK 0-6KM SHEAR RANGED FROM 35 KTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO OVER 50 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. THOUGH 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED A BIT OF AN EML AROUND 850MB.
IF THE ASCENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STRONG
STORMS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY
VEER AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...THUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES MAY NOT
BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DO
DEVELOP THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND THE SLOW MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY LEAD TO
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLIPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THE MAIN 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NE INTO IA AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...I DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES...AND POPULATED WITH HPC DATA DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS. ANOTHER 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION TIMING IS THE MAIN QUESTION. NEXT FEW-SEVERAL HOURS MAY
BE THE MOST CONVECTIVE-FREE TIME AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND APPROACH OF FRONT AND UPPER WAVE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE HIT EVENING HOURS THE HARDEST AT THIS
POINT THINKING STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BRING CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THIS DEGREE OF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

GARGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TONIGHT AND SPREAD
EAST INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE EVENING AND WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME A GREATER HAZARD AS THESE STORMS PRODUCE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. RIVER FLOODING COULD OCCUR AS WATER LEVELS RISE FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             3 E HERINGTON           38.66N 96.89W
04/26/2009  E0.50 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
554 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             3 NW MANHATTAN          39.21N 96.61W
04/26/2009  E0.88 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
04/26/2009  M54 MPH          RILEY              KS   ASOS

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ012-270030-
BROWN-
705 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BROWN COUNTY...

THROUGH 730 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BROWN COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
ROBINSON...EVEREST...AND IOWA SAC AND FOX RESERVATION.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
738 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW BURDICK           38.54N 96.86W
04/26/2009  E70 MPH          MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOST POWER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
757 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E DELIA                 39.24N 95.96W
04/26/2009                   JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            106TH BETWEEN G AND H ROADS. 6 INCHES.

&&

BYRNE