Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
254 PM MST MON JAN 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS
IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL
AGAIN RADIATE OUT THIS EVENING BUT BEGIN TO MODERATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS. AS THE WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY AND
HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING. THE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS. BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS FEATURE WILL TRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GALLATIN COUNTY AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THIS AREA...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD AND REACH NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. EMANUEL

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NICE WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT COOL THOUGH IN THE
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND IN THE HAVRE AREA. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...A FAST
MOVING CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. BRUSDA

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LEAVING MONTANA UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ECMWF SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH A
RATHER FLAT RIDGE ON THE GFS. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SO WILL GO WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON BOTH
DAYS. WILLIAMSON DC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 05Z
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY 18Z...WITH
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TOO. DB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -7  27  20  34 /   0   0  20  20
CTB   1  24  17  32 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  -7  29  22  37 /   0   0  20  30
BZN -18  25  19  37 /   0   0  20  40
WEY -17  13   4  25 /  10  20  80  80
DLN  -7  25  17  33 /   0   0  20  30
HVR -11  21   9  27 /   0   0  10  20
LWT -10  27  18  30 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR MTZ010>014-044>047-049>055.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR MTZ055.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR MTZ009-010-
048.

&&

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...BRUSDA/WILLIAMSON DC
AVIATION...DB

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
455 AM MST MON JAN 26 2009

MTZ009-010-048-271300-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
455 AM MST MON JAN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS
LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
OUT OVER THE PLAINS...INCLUDING THE CUT BANK AREA...ON TUESDAY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MARIAS PASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ011>014-044>047-049>051-054-271300-
HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE-
LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
MEAGHER-
455 AM MST MON JAN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS
LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008-015-052-053-055-271300-
BEAVERHEAD-MADISON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-GALLATIN-
455 AM MST MON JAN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.