Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
117 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AREA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. LIKEWISE...ALOFT HAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST...WITH OUR
REGION MOVING INTO SOME DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...THE AIR IS NOT TOO DRY FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PATTERN DOESNT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD MEAN SOME MORE DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
SINKING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA...CLOSER TO THE HIGH
CENTER. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN WILL WEAKEN SOME AND RETROGRADE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
WILL SINK SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WITH THE
AXIS SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
STRAITS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
(POPS 20-30% RANGE) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW FAVORING
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER INLAND SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DURING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...WEAK VORT LOBES MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A BACK-DOOR TYPE FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE POPS LOOK A BIT LOW GIVEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES...SO WILL DEPICT POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE COAST
TO INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION SHIFTING TOWARD
INLAND LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

ON A SIDE NOTE THE LATEST GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTH INTO
THE REGION DURING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE BACK-DOOR FRONT.
00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF RUNS DID NOT SHOW THIS DRIER AIR OR LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SO FOR THE TIME BEING WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
WITH RESPECT TO THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP ABOVE NORMAL POPS IN PLACE
AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 18/03Z THIS EVENING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
WEATHER IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOR BOATING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  77  92 /  30  30  20  20
FMY  75  94  74  94 /  30  40  20  30
GIF  75  95  75  95 /  30  40  20  30
SRQ  75  92  74  91 /  30  20  20  20
BKV  70  93  70  94 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  80  93  80  92 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...55/SHARP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
504 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-172115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
504 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SCATTERED ACROSS
INLAND AREAS BUT ISOLATED ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
BUT BRIEF RAINFALL.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY INTO THE MID 90S BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR
LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE
FOR EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITIONED
LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY
EARLY EVENINGS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

09/RKR

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