Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SE U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE
MID MISS. RIVER VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND AS A SURFACE LOW TREKS NORTH
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS. RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC NEAR LONGITUDE 60W RIDGES TO THE EASTERN U.S. COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP SW AND SOUTH FLOW ALOFT THE
CWA. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NATIONS
MID-SECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE RIDGE PROVIDES SE AND SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW...DOMINATED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THROUGH TUE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS MON RANGE FROM SCATTERED ALONG
THE COAST TO LIKELY INLAND. THEY THEN DECREASE SOME TUE TO SCATTERED
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES A BIT AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE
MOVES ACTIVITY EASTWARD. MINS WILL RUN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
WHILE HIGHS STAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...IN GENERAL...WE WILL HAVE A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING VASTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ON TO AN EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS BEGINS TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. BEFORE
THAT TIME...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING OF THESE
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AT THIS
POINT...BUT ANY ONE DAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER THAN THE REST
IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH ENERGY ALOFT. DECIDED THE BEST BET WAS TO JUST
CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE...AND A BIT OF MID JUNE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE FORECAST. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT BEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARMEST
OVER THE INTERIOR EACH DAY AND WARM NEAR THE COAST EACH NIGHT...BUT
OVERALL AVERAGES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR FMY AND
RSW AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES BY. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SOUTH THROUGH 20Z...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
...INITIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...RIDGING IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S FROM THE ATLANTIC. MID WEEK THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
AND THEN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FL AND CUBA. THIS WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM SE... WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES..TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS/SEAS 15KT/3FT OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  72  87 /  30  50  20  40
FMY  71  87  72  89 /  20  40  20  40
GIF  70  87  71  89 /  20  60  20  50
SRQ  72  85  72  86 /  30  40  20  40
BKV  68  87  67  87 /  30  50  20  40
SPG  74  86  75  87 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
456 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241830-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
456 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS THE
STORMS WILL FAVOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WHILE THE WIND PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

CANTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HAIL             2 S LAND O LAKES       28.19N 82.45W
05/24/2009  E0.50 INCH       PASCO              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED JUST NORTH OF THE PASCO/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
            LINE.

&&

NOAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
403 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             8 NE BUSHNELL           28.75N 82.02W
05/24/2009  E0.50 INCH       SUMTER             FL   PUBLIC

            SUMTER DISPATCH REPORTED HAIL IN SUMTERVILLE.

0359 PM     HAIL             1 NE ZEPHYRHILLS        28.25N 82.16W
05/24/2009  E0.25 INCH       PASCO              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NOAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
417 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             LAKE WALES              27.90N 81.59W
05/24/2009  E0.25 INCH       POLK               FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

NOAH

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