Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN
PLACE OFFSHORE OF THE SW FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR
WRAPPED AROUND AND ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE
CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHIELD IS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OFF TO THE WNW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST FROM OVER MD/VA AREA TO OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. 50-60% PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUT WITH TIMING TRANSITIONING MORE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE AND
ALLOWS FOR HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH
MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHOULD BE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES. ON MONDAY...WE FINALLY SEE SOME DRYING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE
STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO SUBSIDE
SOME...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY...THEN MORE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE...OR UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
EACH DAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH TEMPO MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING IN THE SCA RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING FROM UP TO 11 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS
DOWN TO 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  84  71  85 /  50  60  40  50
FMY  69  86  70  88 /  50  60  30  50
GIF  68  85  70  85 /  50  60  40  50
SRQ  69  84  70  86 /  50  60  40  50
BKV  67  83  68  85 /  50  60  40  50
SPG  71  83  73  84 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
604 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
604 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR THE COAST.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINERS MAY WANT
TO POSTPONE BOATING PLANS DURING THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MARINERS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE BOATING
PLANS DURING THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

PRC

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