Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
211 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

...ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST DURING THE SHORT TERM
KEEPING AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LEFTOVER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO CAUSE MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ON THURSDAY THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. BY FRIDAY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LOWERING
THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES...AND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
TO LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...DISCREPANCIES AND
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
AS EACH SOLUTION HAS A DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT BY
MONDAY. GFS AND DGEX ARE VERY MUCH AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING VERY DIFFERENT PATHS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
CONSERVATIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS...WHICH BLENDED WITH CLIMO SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER FORECAST ALTERNATIVE AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALSO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THANKS TO MFL AND
MLB FOR THE OFFICE COORDINATION.

FOR THE MOST PART...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON WITH GUARANTEED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL SOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL LOW...A TROUGH PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE WILL AT LEAST ENSURE SOME
KIND OF SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BUILD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. VFR SHOULD THEN RETURN TONIGHT AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE WEEK. WE SHOULD
START TO SEE NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP EACH EVENING STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THEN
DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  88  71  89 /  20  50  20  20
FMY  69  90  68  90 /  10  40  10  30
GIF  70  89  69  90 /  10  40  10  20
SRQ  68  87  68  88 /  20  50  20  20
BKV  67  88  66  89 /  20  50  20  20
SPG  74  87  74  88 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
509 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
509 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. RATHER
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE REGION WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
IN ADDITION FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTERLY WIND FLOW TODAY THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD HANG CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THIS IS WHERE
THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD SET UP MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY TODAY. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF
THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL
THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

MARINER SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY
DRIFT WEST INTO THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ON THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. LOWER STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER TODAY AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
252 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

FLZ062-065-131930-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
252 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LEE AND WESTERN
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND...
PINE ISLAND...PUNTA GORDA AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR
ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2665 8216 2669 8224 2670 8224 2669 8219
      2672 8216 2664 8208 2687 8206 2689 8211
      2695 8207 2695 8211 2692 8217 2680 8214
      2676 8222 2677 8223 2703 8216 2695 8196
      2652 8204 2655 8207 2647 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 149DEG 7KT 2694 8203 2677 8206
          2660 8210

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
305 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

FLZ057-131945-
HIGHLANDS-
305 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HIGHLANDS COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL EASTERN HIGHLANDS
COUNTY...UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2728 8110 2736 8139 2759 8131 2754 8120
      2749 8120 2747 8116 2740 8112 2739 8107
      2738 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 114DEG 3KT 2743 8116

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

FLZ055-060-132100-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
400 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SARASOTA
AND CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTIES GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT MYAKKA RIVER
STATE PARK...VAMO...SOUTH GATE RIDGE AND RIDGE WOOD HEIGHTS...UNTIL
500 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2746 8255 2749 8223 2708 8217 2709 8246
      2711 8248 2715 8250 2717 8250 2719 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 099DEG 4KT 2724 8233

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     WATER SPOUT      8 N PINE ISLAND         26.72N 82.13W
05/13/2009                   GMZ856             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WEAK SPOUT REPORTED BY VIEWER NEAR BOKEELIA.

&&

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
436 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

FLZ039-042-132115-
CITRUS-LEVY-
436 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LEVY AND CENTRAL
CITRUS COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WILLISTON...
BEVERLY HILLS...LEBANON AND HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2922 8239 2921 8240 2921 8252 2906 8253
      2905 8243 2903 8241 2901 8236 2898 8233
      2874 8233 2872 8257 2940 8272 2942 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 022DEG 4KT 2933 8255 2871 8249

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
438 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

FLZ057-061-062-132145-
DE SOTO-HIGHLANDS-CHARLOTTE-
438 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS
COUNTY AND RURAL EASTERN DESOTO COUNTY...UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2701 8157 2732 8183 2732 8149 2721 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 038DEG 12KT 2720 8148