Red Flag Warning 65, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
256 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MS/AL/GA. THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SETTLE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT TO ACROSS SOUTHERN FL AS THE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO NORTHERN FL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND REGION WILL THEN
RIDGE DOWN OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO LOW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. HAVE ALSO GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TODAY
AS DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN. WITH MORE MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE
AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM WITH UPPER 80S COASTAL
TO LOWER-MID 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA EACH NIGHT. AM ALSO
EXPECTING 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM MOIST AIR GETS LIFTED BY
SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH...REACHING 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE
ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS JUST BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A HINT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE
OVER THE EAST. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD FINALLY BE LOOKING AT
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS. KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED.

IN THE MEAN TIME...I DONT SEE ANYTHING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME 30 POPS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
00Z GUIDANCE IS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHICH
THANKS TO THE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE ADDED AN AREA
OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THERE. OTHERWISE...JUST ISOLATED STORMS WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A PREDOMINANT EASTERLY DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES
EXCEPT PINELLAS AND ALONG THE COAST AS EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF 4-6 HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE
AREA AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL HUMIDITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  72  90  72 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  94  70  92  69 /  10  10  20  20
GIF  96  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
SRQ  90  70  89  69 /  10  10  20  20
BKV  93  63  90  65 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  89  72  88  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
458 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-111400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
458 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND COMBINES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE SEA
BREEZE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

COLSON