Red Flag Warning 63, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
159 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED PATTERN-WISE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A
PROGRESSIVE...WET...AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT...THIS SAME PATTERN WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND DAILY SEA BREEZES WILL BE
A GUARANTEE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF POLK
AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...OTHERWISE DRY...STABLE...AND WARM WILL BE
THE RULE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTHERN FL
MONDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE SEA BREEZES WILL COLLIDE LATE
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS MID WEEK WITH A
SHIFT IN WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED. EASTERLY WINDS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL AGAIN
OCCUR FOR MORE THAN FOUR HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTY TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EAST OF INTERSTATE 75...AN HOUR OR TWO
OF THESE LOW RH VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  71  90  71 /  10   5  10  10
FMY  92  72  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
SRQ  87  72  88  70 /  10   5  10  10
BKV  90  64  89  67 /  10   5  10  10
SPG  88  73  88  75 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR HIGHLANDS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
436 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-082000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
436 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A NARROW AREA OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE GENERATED
IN PORTIONS OF POLK AND HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. FOUR OR MORE
HOURS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL USHER
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BY MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CANTIN