Red Flag Warning 29, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 280004
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
704 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

.RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
THIS EVENING WHILE DISPERSION VALUES HAVE DECREASED AS WELL.

FLZ055>057-060>062-065-280115-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-090228T0000Z/
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
704 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
331 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE SE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW SWINGS OVER NORTHERN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP AS MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER JET IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS...BUT NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD
KEEP TOR THREAT LOW.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE...WITH DRY
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
WINDS SLACKENING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING PERIOD.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO SCA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS TO POSSIBLY NEAR GALE LEVELS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MID-NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT TO HAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT COMBINED WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
AROUND 5000-5500FT AND DISPERSIONS AROUND 80...HAVE ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
AND THEN SHOULD HAVE RAIN SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  59  78  60 /   0   0   5  20
FMY  80  58  81  61 /   0   0   5  10
GIF  79  57  81  60 /   0   0   5  20
SRQ  77  56  78  60 /   0   0   5  20
BKV  79  51  80  55 /   0   0  10  30
SPG  75  61  76  60 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-MANATEE-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...05/CANTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-262115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
410 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA COULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES. DURATIONS OF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 4 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE NO WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADVISORY LEVELS COULD BE
REACHED EARLY SUNDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED OF
POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

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