Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 091624
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1124 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2009

...CRITICAL RH VALUES COULD LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR ALL 
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...

FLZ050-051-055>057-060>062-065-092300-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0002.090109T1700Z-090109T2300Z/
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1124 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT
BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-052-092300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0002.090109T1700Z-090109T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-POLK-
1124 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT
BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
450 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...QUIET WEATHER HAS SETTLED OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER FLORIDA AND FLAT
FLOW ALOFT FROM WEST TO EAST. A SPLITTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTERLY
MOVEMENT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT FLORIDA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE MAJOR
FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE...AND FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE...A TRAILING FRONT
FROM A SYSTEM LOCATED SO FAR TO THE NORTH...DEFINITELY POINTS
TOWARD A WEAK FRONT. HAVE SLOWED FRONTAL ARRIVAL SLIGHTLY IN THE
FORECAST...AND HAVE AGAIN LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING
FROPA. STABILITY VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT ENOUGH UPDRAFT
GROWTH AND CLOUD DEPTH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-THURSDAY)...SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTIONS
REGARDING FRONT SUN NT NOW WITH SOME REMNANTS HOLDING INTO SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE 10-20 POPS FROM THE
BAY AREA INTO SW FL FOR THIS. THEN GENERALLY UPPER TROF OVER THE
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND AND LASTING THRU MID WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE REGION SUN/MON THEN DRY FRONT TUE WITH REINFORCING
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED. MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SUBTLE CHANGES AND HAVE TRENDING TOWARD LATEST NUMBERS. NEXT FRONT
TO SWEEP OVER THE REGION MAINLY DRY WED NT/THU WITH MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO
A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE FILTERING
OVER THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN AND
SOME CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND TRIMMED OFF OTHERS WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT PROLONGED CRITICAL CONDITIONS. IF
WINDS ARE SLOWER TO TURN...ENOUGH HEATING AND MIXING OF LOW
LEVELS...MAY CREATE A SCENARIO WHERE A LARGER AREA THAN INDICATED
IN THE WARNING WILL EXPERIENCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION UP TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL RH IN ALL COUNTIES NOT COVERED
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  51  74  58 /   0   0   0  20
FMY  74  51  76  59 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  70  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  71  46  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  70  38  76  54 /   0   0   0  20
SPG  70  54  73  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091700-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
400 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER
FOR FLORIDA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN US.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CANTIN