Freeze Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
323 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...QUITE A POTENT FROPA THIS PAST
EVENING WITH A SHALLOW SQUALL LINE LEADING ITS PASSAGE. WITH THE
FRONT THRU...CAA WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. COLD AIR STRATO CU ALREADY FORMING OUT IN THE GULF...AND WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER WC FL THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY WONT
GO UP MUCH IF ANY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS HOLDING
IN THE LOW-MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. IN
FACT...HIGHS FOR THE CALENDAR DAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN MORE CHILLY. OUR WIND GRIDS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY JUST BARELY
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING.
BUT NONETHELESS...CAUTION WILL BE ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN OVERNIGHT. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE
EVENT IS STILL IN STORE FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. WILL UPGRADE
FREEZE WATCH TO HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES...AND FREEZE WARNING FOR PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...
AND POLK COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE WARNED AREA...READINGS
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32 IN MANY SPOTS. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL ADVY
WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION...BUT LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LEAST CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS (HELPFUL FOR FROST) WILL
ALREADY BE UNDER THE HARD FREEZE WARNING. FINALLY...STILL
EXPECTING A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM
LATER TODAY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ASSOC WITH THE STRATO CU COMING
ONSHORE FROM THE GULF. AS WE MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...
WE CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR SNOW PELLET MIXING IN WITH THE
SPRINKLES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FOR
NOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
NOT A BIG PROBLEM.

FOR WED...WIND BELOW 850 MB WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH...
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH AND KEEP THE STRATO CU OUT IN THE GULF.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WED NIGHT...HIGH PRESS WILL SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE PENINSULA. CALM
WINDS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
WHAT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR US THIS WINTER SEASON. LOWS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST COUNTIES TO UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. FREEZING TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO INTERIOR LEE COUNTY A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FROM PASCO NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY...WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FROM
HILLSBOROUGH/POLK SOUTH TO CHARLOTTE COUNTY. FROST ADVY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COUNTIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNINGS.

DAYTIME THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND RECORD TEMP INFORMATION. ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE SOME
RECORDS MY BE BROKEN OR CLOSE TO BEING BROKEN...IT DOESNT APPEAR
WE WILL SEE TOO MANY RECORDS AS JANUARY 21 AND 22 OF 1985 WAS
EXTREMELY COLD AND IS WHEN MANY OF THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORDS
WERE SET. THIS STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS PIL MIAPNSTBW OR
WITHIN THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY SECTION ON OUR HOME PAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FRIDAY WEATHER AS GUIDANCE INDICATES ONE MORE NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES...BUT AGAIN NOT AS LOW AS
MEX VALUES FOR OUR COLDER SPOTS.  STILL THE CHANGE WILL MEAN ANOTHER
SHOT AT A FREEZE FOR THE NATURE COAST. AFTER THAT THE AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. WILL KEEP IN 10 POPS AND LEAN TOWARD CLIMO FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING MAY HAVE LEFT ENOUGH MOISTURE BEHIND FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TEMPO
GROUPS FOR KSRQ NORTH. ENVIRONMENT NEAR KFMY SHOULD STILL BE TOO
MIXED UP FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. AFTER DAYBREAK SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WIND WILL BE THE STORY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED MORNING WITH STRONG
NW WINDS. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET. WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVY FOR TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WED WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS. THEN...FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUE FOR LEVY AND SUMTER
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND
WINDS AOA 15 MPH. THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR WED WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AS WIDESPREAD LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RH EXPECTED. SIMILAR SITUATION EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...THUS A FIRE WX WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THAT DAY AS WELL.
IN FACT...DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RFW CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. RH GRIDS SHOW
SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  33  53  34 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  63  38  59  35 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  56  30  54  32 /   5   5   0   0
SRQ  57  38  55  35 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  53  25  52  21 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  57  41  54  42 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY-
     SUMTER.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
     SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
     HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
     SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
     POLK-SARASOTA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR HILLSBOROUGH-
     PASCO-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...17/PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...55/SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
517 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-192200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
517 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TODAY...SO SMALL CRAFT ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS
NEARSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
STARTING TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY. A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF
WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.TO
AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND
NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH
ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...WITH READINGS POSSIBLY
DIPPING DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A FREEZE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...AND
PASCO COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE TAMPA METRO AREA AND SOUTH TOWARD FORT MYERS...
LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE EVEN COLDER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AWAY
FROM THE GULF COAST. FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO THE
UPPER 20S EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND AROUND FREEZING CLOSER TO
THE TAMPA AND FORT MYERS METRO AREAS.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION. REMEMBER TO BRING PETS
INDOORS WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. ALSO...THIS IS A
GOOD TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR HOMES HEATING SYSTEM IS IN GOOD
WORKING ORDER. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS UPCOMING COLD
SPELL.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND TAMPA BAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 9 FEET NEARSHORE AND 9 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL BE ROUGH ON TAMPA BAY AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT...AND MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE THAT ARE INEXPERIENCED OR OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE ROUGH SURF AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY AND SUMTER
COUNTIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WINDS. RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...DUE TO
EXTENDED DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT MAY START
ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PETRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1159 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE SAINT PETERSBURG   27.73N 82.64W
01/19/2009  M40 MPH          GMZ830             FL   ASOS

            35 KT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST ALONG TAMPA BAY.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1214 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HAIL             LAKE PANASOFFKEE        28.79N 82.13W
01/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       SUMTER             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED THAT A VIEWER OBSERVED A FUNNEL
            CLOUD ALONG WITH GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1219 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

FLZ060-200615-
SARASOTA-
1219 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SARASOTA COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH...WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SARASOTA
COUNTY UNTIL 115 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO
DELAY TRAVEL.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1229 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SE SAINT PETERSBURG   27.73N 82.64W
01/19/2009  E40.00 MPH       GMZ830             FL   ASOS

            35 KT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST ALONG TAMPA BAY.

1220 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NW SARASOTA           27.35N 82.56W
01/20/2009  E46.00 MPH       GMZ853             FL   ASOS

            40 KT WIND GUST ALONG THE COAST...MEASURED AT KSRQ.

&&

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1231 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

FLZ052-056-057-200630-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-
1231 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH...WILL AFFECT LAKE WALES...WAUCHULA...AVON PARK AND
SEBRING...UNTIL 130 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

RJS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>