Tornado Warning 81, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR/RUC 500 MB COMPOSITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FROM CNTRL MS TO EXTREME SERN AR
DURING THE PAST 6 HRS. THE 12Z LOCATION WAS WELL PREDICTED BY THE
GFS AND NAM. MEANWHILE...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WAS ABOUT LOCATED
100 MI S OF MEM. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR OBS INDICATED THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WAS NW OF THE CENTER OVER SRN MO AND MUCH OF AR...WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY BAND EXTENDING FROM ERN AL THROUGH THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN GULF. ECHO TRAINING ACROSS MUCH OF
WALTON...WRN HOLMES AND GENEVA COUNTIES RESULTED IN 3-HR RADAR
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1-3 INCHES WITH AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES. THIS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 930 AM CDT. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MORE STORMS MOVE ASHORE
AND NWD ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

THE MODIFIED TAE 12Z SOUNDING FOR AN AFTERNOON SURFACE PARCEL T/TD
OF 85/68 YIELDS NEARLY 3000 J/KG CAPE...-7 LI AND NO CIN. EXPECT A
SIMILAR SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE E AND W COAST SEA BREEZES AND WEAK VORT ENERGY
ALOFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH (MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS LOW)...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL. THE INHERITED LIKELY (60-70 PCT) POPS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. THEREFORE...NO UPDATES TO THE
MORNING ZONE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...SELY WINDS 10-15 KT AND 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL AT THE BUOYS
THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND SEAS PER OBS TRENDS
WILL BE MADE FOR THE MORNING CWF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA...WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AS
REFLECTED IN TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
00Z. IN WHAT HAS BECOME A PERSISTENT PATTERN...SREF CEILING PRODUCTS
SHOWS THAT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR (MAINLY AL/GA) CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  84 68 83 68 82/ 70 40 60 30 60
PANAMA CITY  81 70 83 71 81/ 70 40 60 30 60
DOTHAN       82 68 83 68 83/ 70 40 60 30 60
ALBANY       84 69 84 68 85/ 70 40 60 30 60
VALDOSTA     84 67 85 67 84/ 70 40 60 30 60
CROSS CITY   84 66 85 68 84/ 70 40 60 30 60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

JAMSKI/BLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-250945-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009 /445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. AN FEW STRONG STORMS AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BARRY