Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
ERN 3/4 OF N AMERICA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING
THROUGH IT. THE STRONGEST IS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN WITH ANOTHER
PUSHING ACROSS TX AND WEAKER IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE
ACROSS THE SERN STATES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE
S OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER OVER AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOIST
STRONG SWLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN TYPICAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THIS TYPE OF REGIME WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF FAST MOVING STORMS.
A FEW OF THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE STRONG TO SEVERE RANGE ACROSS OUR
NWRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS...BUT BEGIN TO LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT
BEGIN TO EDGE NWD BY FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOMEWHAT LOWER
MIDLEVEL THETA-E AIR WORKING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW...BUT POPS WILL STILL BE HIGH...LIKELY MOST AREAS.
UNIFORM LIKELY POPS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR FRI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND PERHAPS PAST
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND JUST A SMIDGE
ABOVE AT NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED.
SUBTLE CHANGES IN STORE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
REGIONS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF OVER FLORIDA.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY TO A
POSITION ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THE INCREASED RIDGING AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL YIELD SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIVEN BY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. RAIN COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE EC DROPPING THE UPPER TROUGH BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE GFS HOLDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE A BIT STRONGER. WHILE THE
REAPPEARANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COULD INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION...FEEL ITS PRUDENT NOT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM CLIMO THIS FAR
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER OR JUST S OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS. EXPECT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER SEAS IN THE VICINITY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THU.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY TODAY FOR ALL TAF
SITES. AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE COUPLED WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS WILL
YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL HUBS AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
AT ABY, VLD, AND DHN WITH LOWERED CEILINGS AND -SHRA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW AS DAYTIME HEATING
PROMOTES DESTABILIZATION IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM
BEING REACHED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  73  92  74  90  74 /  30  70  20  70  20
PANAMA CITY  78  90  78  89  76 /  20  50  30  60  20
DOTHAN       73  91  74  90  73 /  20  70  30  70  30
ALBANY       74  93  75  92  74 /  20  70  30  70  30
VALDOSTA     72  92  74  92  73 /  30  70  20  70  30
CROSS CITY   74  91  74  91  73 /  40  80  30  60  20
APALACHICOLA 77  90  77  89  77 /  20  40  30  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS/AUSTIN
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...CAMP
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>