Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER
CENTRAL GA TO THE MOBILE AL AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED NORTH OF I-10...AN AREA WHERE THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY
(DUE TO MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND NO PREVIOUS RAIN). VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH JUST
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THE WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) THE LATEST GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF
FORECAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH
TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE LOCKED ON TO THE SOLUTION OF BRINGING DRIER MID
TROPOSPHERIC AIR TO OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS TO OUR WEST AND HIGHER POPS TO OUR
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY...A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE WET
MICROBURSTS AND/OR HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS WE
EXPECT A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE PAST DAY OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) A GRADUALLY RETURN TOWARD SUMMER
CLIMATOLOGY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT OVER S/CNTRL AL AND
GA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA MOVING EWD ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR-LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
MOS/SREF/SFC COND PRES DEFIT PROGS ALL FOCUS VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE GA TERMINALS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR
CIG AT VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  71 /  40  60  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  75 /  40  50  20  40  30
DOTHAN        72  92  74  92  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
ALBANY        71  91  71  90  70 /  40  50  20  40  20
VALDOSTA      70  89  70  89  69 /  40  70  30  60  20
CROSS CITY    73  88  72  88  70 /  50  70  30  60  30
APALACHICOLA  75  88  75  89  75 /  40  60  20  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

GAZ120-082030-
QUITMAN-
336 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR QUITMAN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GEORGETOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

FLZ011-082100-
JACKSON-
309 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

AT 309 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF MARIANNA...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

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