Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN ALONG THE GULF COAST. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. THE BACKING MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE LARGE MCS (CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN) WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE 12 UTC KTAE SOUNDING
SHOWED MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR ABOVE 700 MB THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. THE LATEST MOS AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM OUR LOCAL WRF
INDICATE SOME SEA BREEZE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
FL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (ALBEIT LOW) BEING NEAR THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM 1000-700 MB WILL PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS FROM
MAKING MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP INTO THE DRY AIR ALOFT...THE ONES THAT DO COULD
BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE MLCAPE
NEAR 2000 J/KG AND STEEP VERTICAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES (30K
DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB).

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MIST WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10 ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW TODAY
AND WILL MENTION FEW-SCT CB CLOUDS. CU CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   95  72  97  73  98 /  20  10  20  10  20
PANAMA CITY   90  77  91  77  87 /  20  10  10  10  10
DOTHAN        95  73  97  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20
ALBANY        95  72  96  74  98 /  10  10  20  20  20
VALDOSTA      93  70  96  72  97 /  10  10  20  20  20
CROSS CITY    93  71  94  72  95 /  20  10  20  10  10
APALACHICOLA  92  76  89  76  85 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...JAMSKI
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-151900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
256 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009 /156 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDERS. THESE STORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAY MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS THE AIRMASS IS THIS REGION REMAINS HOT...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ALOFT...THE HOT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH
105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE STRONG WITH
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND INTENSE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER