Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WELL IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO
SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. SBCAPES IN THE RAIN FREE
AIR HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 J/KG. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT).
AFTER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING...A BIG CHANGE WILL BE
COMING TO THE FORECAST. LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU FIELD BACK TO THE
WEST...ALONG A WEAK TROF AXIS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL HELP PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING.

THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS HOT AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF MAY WILL RETURN TO VALUES SEEN DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S. BY SUNDAY...EVEN WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE DRIER AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RELATIVELY COOL MORNINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS WELL INLAND IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY).
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF/GEM
SHOWING THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
TO START OUT THE WORK WEEK. WEAK TROUGHING WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH A MESSY RIDGE CONFIGURATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER THIS PATTERN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ISOLD/WDLY SCT AFTERNOON STORMS.

OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE EJECTING OUT
OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER
TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO DIG A BROADER TROUGH INTO THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
LOW END CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
THE REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO SHARPLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE CLIMO POPS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE UNDER
THIS PATTERN MAY BE QUITE NUMEROUS IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES ON THE
OTHER HAND SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD-
COVER AND CONVECTION. WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF PACKAGE VALID THROUGH 18Z SAT. RIGHT AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME...WE ARE SEEING OUR FIRST SHOWERS POP UP ON RADAR. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT 3000 J/KG OF CAPE OUT THERE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WEAKENING AND SLOW MOVING FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY AND THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...SO WE LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TS IN AT TLH AND VLD. THESE TWO SITE MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY IN AND AROUND DAWN SAT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAY PEAK AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT THEN DECREASE
IN THE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLAN TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SAT FOR MOST
OF OUR FL ZONES BASED ON 3-4 HR DURATIONS OF RH AOB 35 PERCENT AND
HIGH DISPERSION INDICES. WILL LEAVE OUT THE COASTAL ZONES. LOOKING
AHEAD TO SUN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ATTAINING THE 4-HR DURATION
REQUIREMENT FOR RH AND WILL POST A WATCH FOR ALL FL ZONES. CONTINUED
LOW KBDI PRECLUDES RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN AL AND IT WILL NOT BE
WINDY ENOUGH IN GA TO MEET THAT STATES CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  65  92  65  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  69  88  68  90  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       66  91  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       67  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     66  91  64  94  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   69  91  65  92  65 /  10  10   0   5   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GADSDEN...
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

&&

LONG TERM...MROCZKA
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-301000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
439 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009 /339 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA EASTERN BIG BEND...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH MODERATE WINDS
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST OF A LINE
FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

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