Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...AT 9AM EST...THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE
LOW JUST NORTH OF MONTGOMERY WITH A SOUTHWEST TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MOST CONVECTION HAS SKIRTED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY WE ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO UPDATE ZONES TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR
CWA IN A CONVECTIVE WATCH BEFORE THE SCHEDULED LATE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO GRIDS OR ZONES ANTICIPATED.

.AVIATION...BUSY TAFS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA RIVER IN ADVANCE OF RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EAST OF APALACHICOLA RIVER...CIGS ARE AT MVFR LEVELS.  MOST OF THE
WORST WEATHER REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AL...MS AND
GA ALONG A WARM FRONT WHERE RAIN AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN GOING ALL NIGHT
LONG. SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT...NOW IN CENTRAL MS...WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
DEEPENS ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STRONG
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASING
IN COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NW TO SE AS DAY PROGRESSES.  PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
REACH KDHN AND KABY THIS MORNING AND KPFN AND KTLH EARLY
AFTERNOON.   BREEZY DAY WITH 12 TO 15 KT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE MAIN FRONT WITH POSSIBLE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL
PUNCH THROUGH KDHN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND KPFN AND KTLH THIS
EVENING AND EASTWARD THROUGH VALDOSTA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIG
RESTRICTIONS AND SCT SHWRS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO
SUNDAY AS THIS POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WERE WELL BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
FACT...FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY SO WE WILL ISSUE A
GALE WATCH.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

LANIER/BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
603 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-011115-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
603 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 /503 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...GALE WATCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME OF THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY FROM ALBANY AND
DOTHAN NORTHWARD. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1116 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

GAZ120-122-281645-
QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
1116 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR QUITMAN AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EST

AT 1114 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

12-WATSON