Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 030303
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM
EST /7 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO
POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT WILL
EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-031200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0038.090303T1500Z-090304T0100Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1600Z-090305T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2009 /903 PM CST MON MAR 2 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
TO 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO
8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 8 PM
EST /7 PM CST/ TUESDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-031200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0038.090303T1800Z-090304T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1800Z-090304T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2009 /903 PM CST MON MAR 2 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/
TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

14-MROCZKA

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 030703
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
203 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND TODAY FOR
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME AREA WEDNESDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...

.DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-032100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0038.090303T1500Z-090304T0100Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1600Z-090305T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
203 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 /103 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS MORNING...AND
REMAIN BELOW THIS LEVEL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WATCH FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-032100-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0038.090303T1800Z-090304T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1800Z-090304T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
203 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 /103 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN BELOW THIS LEVEL THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...AND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER
TODAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WATCH FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

FOURNIER

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 032005
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 
FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO ONGOING LONG DURATIONS CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO ONGOING LONG
DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE
TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE LONG 
DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS 
ANTICIPATED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT CRITICAL DURATIONS
OF THESE LOW VALUES WILL BE REACHED. THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING
AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING 
THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUING TO MODERATE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING CRITICAL
VALUES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-040130-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-090304T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1800Z-090304T2300Z/
QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-
TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-
BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
305 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY STILL REACH 25 PERCENT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
CRITICAL DURATIONS OF THESE LOW VALUES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT CRITICAL
DURATIONS OF THESE LOW VALUES WILL BE REACHED. THEREFORE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND NOT BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-040130-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1600Z-090305T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0039.090304T1700Z-090305T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-090304T0100Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
305 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 /205 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/
THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 7
PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FOR A
SHORT TIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ALZ065>069-040130-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1800Z-090304T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-090304T0000Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
205 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT CRITICAL
DURATIONS OF THESE LOW VALUES WILL BE REACHED. THEREFORE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND NOT BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WATCH FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

MROCZKA/GODSEY

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 040119
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
819 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE
TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT CRITICAL DURATIONS OF THESE LOW VALUES WILL BE
REACHED. THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
AND NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...
HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-041200-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-090304T0100Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0039.090304T1700Z-090305T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
819 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 /719 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 7
PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FOR A
SHORT TIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-041200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0033.090304T1800Z-090304T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
819 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 /719 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2009/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT CRITICAL
DURATIONS OF THESE LOW VALUES WILL BE REACHED. THEREFORE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND NOT BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. WATCH FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

14-MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST...

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...FREEZE WARNING LIKELY FOR MUCH OF FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 PM EST...IT WAS SUNNY ACROSS REGION. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
50S. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AREAWIDE.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH LARGE TROUGHS OVER ERN PAC/W COAST AND OVER
ERN MOST CONUS WITH LARGE RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER ROCKIES IN BETWEEN.
SOME CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS ERN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. LIKEWISE...ASSOCD VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER AND SNOW TO THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ALSO QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME
SOME EWD JAUNT OF PAC COAST TROUGH AND A DEAMPLIFICATION OF ROCKIES
RIDGE WITH MOVES INTO GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY. BROAD RIDGING BEGINS
TO SPREAD EWD AND REPLACE ERN TROUGH LEADING TO THE UPPER HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THUS ONLY AREA OF CONUS CONVECTION NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE ACROSS CALIF.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK ALONG THE NE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND REACHING CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN OVER
THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC LATE
WED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADING LOCAL AREA INTO EARLY WED.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE RECENT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WEAKEN TO NEAR CALM LEVELS BY LATE EVENING AND TO
CALM B4 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS REFLECTED IN 12Z REGIONAL
RAOBS WITH FFC...BMX AND TAE WITH BONE DRY 0.21 0.19 0.12 INCH
PWATS RESPECTIVELY. LITTLE SHORT TERM CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS
REFLECTED IN TIME HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. TAE
GFS SOUNDING WITH 0.22 IN PWAT AT 12Z MON DRYING OUT TO 0.13 IN AT
12Z TUES AND ONLY INCHING UP TO 0.45 INCH PWAT AT 12Z WED. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INLAND. THEN VEERING WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING FROM W-E FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY)...
NO POPS IN SHORT TERM FORECAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND A VERY COLD
AIRMASS (850-925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -.5 TO .2.5 C).
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CENTER WILL STILL BE TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST...SO
WE ARENT LOOKING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALL THIS WILL LEAD
TO LIKELY HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN 1/2RD OF CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
LIGHT...BUT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS BRIEFLY REACHING THE LOWER 20S
AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT A LIGHT FREEZE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST (ALTHOUGH ISOLATED INLAND SPOTS WILL REACH HARD FREEZE
CRITERIA) ALL THIS REFLECTED IN COND PROB OF HARD/LIGHT FREEZE
PROBABILITIES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST A GOOD BET ACROSS MUCH OF
CWA. THUS HARD FREEZE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR BIG BEND
AND GA...FREEZE WARNING ELSEWHERE. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE BOTH RUNNING 2-4
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WRN COUNTIES WHICH I
THINK IS A TAD HIGH. FORECAST MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH.

TUESDAY...COLD AIR CONVECTION CONTINUES SO HIGHS INCH UP TO 55-60.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EWD SO PRE-DAWN
MINS A TAD HIGH...UPPER 20S IN COLDEST SPOT. FREEZE WARNING LIKELY
FOR MOST OF CWA LATE TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH MOVING OFF INTO ATLC...WINDS VEER. MAX TEMPS
RISE TO MID 60S LOWS ABOVE FREEZING.

THURSDAY...HIGHS RISE TO LOW-MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO FORECAST
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
DIVERGE AFTERWARD. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAIN THIS
RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY...UNTIL FINALLY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
WE WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NCEP. AFTER BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME. WE WILL BLEND THE GFS BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS MOS...AS THE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DO A
BETTER JOB AT REFLECTING JUST HOW COOL THE NEARSHORE SHELF WATERS
ARE AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST (GIVEN
THE FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS). FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...EARLY AFTERNOON BUOYS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO
BELOW ADVISORY CONDS. HOWEVER SEAS...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE REMAIN
AT 6-7 FEET. THEY SHOULD DROP TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SO SCA IN EFFECT TIL 3PM THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS WITH
CHOPPY SEAS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WX...RED FLAG CONTS FOR FL ZONES UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING.
AIR MASS DRIES OUT FURTHER NEXT TWO DAYS. RED FLAG ALL ZONES FOR
TUES...FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL ZONES ON WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  24  58  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  31  58  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       28  56  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       25  56  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     25  57  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   25  60  29  67 /   0   0   0   0

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALL
     ZONES.
     RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.

GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
     ALL ZONES.
     RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/
     THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.
     HARD FREEZE WARNING BIG BEND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
     TUESDAY MORNING.
     FREEZE WARNING PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
     TUESDAY MORNING.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
     THROUGH EVENING ALL ZONES.
     FIRE WX WATCH WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES,

GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
529 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-031015-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
529 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 /429 AM CST MON MAR 2 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CLEAR SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THE MID 50S WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A VERY COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO AROUND 24 TO 26 DEGREES FOR
TWO TO THREE HOURS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PANHANDLE COAST
DURING THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE MORE
COLD NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.