Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 090917 CCA
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED FOUR
HOUR DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...

.DRY AIR WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA TODAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 40S WILL CREATE CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

FLZ016>019-028-029-034-092200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0024.090209T1800Z-090209T2200Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
417 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JAMSKI

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 091928
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
228 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS CANCELLED...

FLZ016>019-028-029-034-092030-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090209T2200Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
228 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE NOT DROPPED AS LOW AS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

GODSEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. EXCEPTION TO THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY
ALONG APALACHEE BAY. COLD SHELF WATERS...NEAR 50 DEGREES...AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEXT TWO DAYS WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS
IN THE MID 60S.

BY WEDNESDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST...PUSHING INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE TO SOME EXTENT AND
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
HOLD RATHER FIRM...HOWEVER...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST WELL WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WITH A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...AND THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE
GENEROUS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. SURFACE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER CNTRL GULF/FL PENINSULA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. FRONT THEN BEGINS TO
RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF SHOWERY WX WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SERN
STATES. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF WITH ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET HERALDING
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND EURO
ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURES
...WITH THE EURO A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...LEANED
TOWARD AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THIS MAKES FOR A SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST WITH POSITION OF WARM FRONT AND EXTENT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW A TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 60S N TO LOW-MID
70S S...AND LOWS FROM THE 40S N TO 50S S. THESE VALUES ARE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH PERIODS OF BKN CIRRUS. ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR TO OCNL IFR-LIFR VSBY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DHN MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR-VLIFR VSBY/CIG. THEN VFR WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SCT TO OCNL BKN CIRRUS AND
CU BASES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS AROUND 5 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO
7-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS STAY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPS IN LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL RESULT IN 4 HR DURATIONS OF SUB-35 PERCENT RH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDORS IN THE FL BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE ZONES. ON
TUESDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  73  44  72  52  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY  68  54  69  59  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
DOTHAN       73  47  76  53  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
ALBANY       75  45  76  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  30
VALDOSTA     74  45  77  50  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
CROSS CITY   73  44  72  51  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...MADISON...TAYLOR.

GM...NONE.
&&

CAMP/JAMSKI