Heat Advisory 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

...DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...
...HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...OPPRESSIVE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSITION
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR INTENSE HEAT. FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND 102 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES BEING
ISSUED BY THE MID SHIFT TONIGHT.

MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT FROM TALLAHASSEE EAST WITH THE
AREA ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST...FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...AND PREVENT NORTHERN MCS ACTIVITY TO ROTATE INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP ONLY ISOLATED POPS EAST OF THE RIVER NEAR THE
COAST FOR ANY SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THAT  DOES DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE EXTENDED FCST SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS PACKAGE...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HOT LEVEL UPPER RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARDS THE LA/TX REGION...BUT IT DOES NOW
APPEAR THAT THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE MAY LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE CWA...SO RAISED TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...IT STILL APPEARS A BIT TRICKY...AS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BE IN DEEP LAYER N-NW FLOW ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND THIS COULD VERY WELL PUT OUR REGION IN
THE MCS CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD...AND THE
GFS IS NOW CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN THE EURO FROM MON THROUGH
WED...SO FCST CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
ITS ALSO A BIT EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SEVERE WX PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME (ALTHOUGH IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE MCS CHANNEL HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SOME VERY STRONG STORMS JUST TO OUR N AND NW OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS)...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY BEEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WHICH WILL AT LEAST FEEL LIKE SOME RELIEF DESPITE HIGHS STILL
AVERAGING ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KVLD
WILL STORM IN THE VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY AS ACTIVITY MAY BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD KTLH
THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VIS IN HZ/BR LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STACKED RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR
EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AS WELL. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOWEVER
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
APPROACH 35 PERCENT ALONG WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   74 101  76 101  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
PANAMA CITY   78  96  80  95  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
DOTHAN        74 101  76 102  76 /  10  10   0  10  10
ALBANY        75 101  76 102  77 /  20  10   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      73 100  74 101  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    74  98  74  97  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
APALACHICOLA  77  92  78  92  78 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

CAMP/MROCZKA/GOULD