Freeze Warning 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 PM EST SUN DEC 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD AND DRY SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS NOW BUILDING ITS
WAY EASTWARD FROM LA AND MS....SHOULD BE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA BY
TOMORROW MORNING TO SET UP OUR OUR EXPECTED WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE
OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SW...BUT AT THIS TIME...EXPECT IT TO BE THIN ENOUGH AS
TO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTERFERE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AS THE GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING MOST OF THE MOISTURE AT 250 MB (35000 FT) AND ABOVE...WHICH
WOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR A CIRRUS DECK. THEREFORE...SEE LITTLE REASON
WHY MOST INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WILL NOT RECEIVE A FAIRLY LONG
DURATION LIGHT FREEZE...AND WILL PLAN ON UPGRADING THE CURRENT WATCH
TO A WARNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE AS EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE
APPROACHING...AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NEARLY IDEAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING (BARRING
THICKER THAN EXPECTED CIRRUS)...WITH A VERY STRONG SFC INVERSION
EXPECTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 3 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES OR JUST BELOW EARLIER THIS
SEASON...TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE FIRST NIGHT OF A WIDESPREAD AND LONG
DURATION LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH LOWS APPROACHING
FREEZING AT THE COAST. DURATIONS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS COULD BE AS
GREAT AS 4 TO 7 HOURS...SO ALL INTERESTS WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION
SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEIR PLANTS
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY
...ALTHOUGH NEAR 60 DEGREES IS STILL A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY) IN THE BEST POSITION UNDER THE SFC
RIDGE. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS TIME FRAME
TO BOTH AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE NEW FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...AND TO
ALLOW ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO TO NARROW DOWN THE BEST TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE POSSIBLE FREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE RELATIVELY STABLE 4 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A MEAN TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
A MEAN RIDGE OVER OR JUST INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST...THOUGH THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND
BROADEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION ON WEDNESDAY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFY THE TROUGH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE SLOWER ECMWF. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE AND A WARMING
TREND. AS USUAL THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE INSTABILITY OF
THE AIRMASS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND EARLY
CHRISTMAS DAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT ABOUT AS QUIET A PERIOD AS POSSIBLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE SHORT TERM...AS LIGHT N-NE
WINDS ON MONDAY GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E AND SE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN
GA/AL HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS FURTHER
HEATING AND DRYING TAKE PLACE. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERALL...AVIATION
WEATHER WILL BE IDEAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE VERY COOL HIGH TEMPS TO COUNTERACT THE
DRIER AIR...AND THUS PROHIBIT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING REACHED
THIS AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE FIRE WX
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
MARGINAL AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM W TO E...SO INITIATED
A FIRE WX WATCH FROM TALLAHASSEE EASTWARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERINE FLOODING IS AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING BASINS...

...FLINT RIVER INCLUDING ALBANY/ABNG1 AND BAINBRIDGE/BGEG1 (MINOR
FLOODING)...

ABNG1 - HOLDING STEADY AT 23.3 FT AND FORECAST TO BEGIN FALLING
TONIGHT...AND BELOW FLOOD STAGE (20 FT) WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BGEG1 - STAGE WAS 26.5 FT LATE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY RECEDE TO 25 FT CHRISTMAS MORNING.

...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK NEAR DAWSON/DSNG1 (MINOR FLOODING)...

DSNG1 - STARTING TO LEVEL OFF AT 14.5 FT LATE THIS MORNING...BUT
PREDICTED TO BEGIN RISING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT AND CRESTING AT 15.4
FT ON TUESDAY.

...APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN/BLOF1 (MINOR FLOODING)...

BLOF1 - RIVER HAS LEVELED OFF AT 21.9 FT AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT THIS STAGE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN
FALLING...REACHING 19 FT EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY.

...CHOCTAWHATCHEE/PEA RIVER AT GENEVA/GNVA1 (MINOR FLOODING)...
CARYVILLE/CARF1 (MODERATE FLOODING)...AND BRUCE/BRUF1 (MAJOR
FLOODING)...

GNVA1 - STAGE WAS 27.2 FT LATE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY RECEDING. THE
RIVER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO FALLING AT A MORE RAPID PACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

CARF1 - STAGE WAS 16 FT LATE THIS MORNING...AND WILL FALL BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE (16 FT) THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
REACH 12 FT EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY.

BRUF1 - STAGE WAS 19 FT LATE THIS MORNING. THE RIVER IS FORECAST
TO CREST NEAR 19.5 FT TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN A SLOW RECESSION
BUT REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE (16.5 FT) THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

...AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT/LAMF1 (MINOR FLOODING)...

LAMF1 - FORECAST TO RISE AND LEVEL OFF AT 9.8 FT THROUGH MONDAY THEN
BEGIN SLOWLY RECEDING...BELOW FLOOD STAGE (9 FT) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING STAGE FORECASTS AND FLOOD IMPACTS...REFER
TO THE NWS TALLAHASSEE AHPS WEB SITE AT:

HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   27  60  28  66  36 /  00  00  00  00  10
PANAMA CITY   32  58  38  65  48 /  00  00  00  00  10
DOTHAN        32  58  35  64  41 /  00  00  00  00  10
ALBANY        27  58  32  65  35 /  00  00  00  00  10
VALDOSTA      28  59  29  66  36 /  00  00  00  00  10
CROSS CITY    27  60  27  66  36 /  00  00  00  00  10
APALACHICOLA  34  58  37  64  48 /  00  00  00  00  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL
     ZONES.

GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL
     ZONES.

FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL
     ZONES...EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

     RED FLAG WARNING MON AFTN ALL ZONES.

     FIRE WX WATCH TUE AFTN FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEON...
     WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE...AND LAFAYETTE.

GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...AUSTIN
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...DUVAL
HYDROLOGY...JAMSKI

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