Freeze Warning 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS N AMERICA
THIS MORNING. THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS IS EXITING THE E COAST. THE
RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED OUT INTO THE PLAINS. SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE W. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES RIDGING SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER A 2ND MORNING OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S N TO
THE UPPER 50S S. THIS IS SOME 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPDATED TO
REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINE FOR THIS MORNINGS EVENT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PEAKED AROUND 15 KT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL VEER FROM THE NE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO THE E WED AND WED
NIGHT AND THEN SE FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND. WE ARE LOOKING FOR SOME
NOCTURNAL SURGE EACH NIGHT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 KT AGAIN
TONIGHT AND ALSO ON WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS (LOW RH) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTION STAGES ARE OCCURRING OR FORECAST ON THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER...THE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE HAS ALREADY
CRESTED (ABOUT A DAY EARLY) AND THE DOWNSTREAM GAGE AT HAVANA IS
RISING MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE OCMULGEE RIVER AT
ABBEVILLE IS ALSO RISING MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST AND THE FLOOD
CREST FORECAST FOR SAT LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
155 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2009

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
STATES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE PLAINS. PROVIDED THE VERY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS...THIS WILL MAINLY BE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND ALL INDICATE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE MAKES
ITS WAY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OR AROUND THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM ALL INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OUT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOCAL
NORTHERLY WINDS TO VEER AROUND TOWARD THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.

THERE WAS PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AND A BLEND OF THESE WILL BE TAKEN FOR
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE AND MODELS OUTPUT VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES (60-100
PERCENT) FOR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL OF COURSE
BE THE IMMEDIATE PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 33 DEGREES TO THE MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO 4 TO 6 HOUR
DURATIONS WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS.

THE COMBINATION OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...A WELL MODIFIED
AIRMASS...AND THE SURFACE WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE LOW
70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
70S OVER THE INLAND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EASTERLY WINDS
BLOWING ACROSS THE COOL APALACHEE BAY WATERS (56-61 DEGREES) WILL
LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF FRANKLIN
AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...WHICH INCLUDES THE ST. GEORGE ISLAND
BEACHES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LATEST GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF RUNS ARE SIMILAR TO
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THEY ALL FORECAST DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARD. THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO PROTECT OUR REGION WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING
UNTIL ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO LIMP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN CASE THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT...WE WILL LOWER THE GFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST A LITTLE CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO FORECAST SLIGHT
POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  58  26  63  36  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  57  35  63  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       55  31  62  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       55  28  61  33  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     56  28  62  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   58  28  65  36  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TODAY ALL ZONES.

     FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING ALL ZONES.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST TODAY ALL ZONES.

     FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING ALL ZONES.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.

     FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING ALL ZONES.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING ALL ZONES.

GM...NONE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...GIBBS/FOURNIER
CURRENT DISCUSSIONS...WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-041000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
348 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 /248 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN AND
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR FOUR TO SIX HOURS OR THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND CROPS COULD BE DAMAGED WITH
THESE DURATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND WILL REMAIN UP INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
207 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE FORT RUCKER        31.36N 85.69W
02/28/2009                   DALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN ACROSS A ROADWAY IN DALE COUNTY. ONE HOME
            ALSO STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALBANY                  31.58N 84.18W
02/28/2009                   DOUGHERTY          GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW LARGE TREES DOWN ON 1800 BLOCK OF DAWSON ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TY TY                   31.47N 83.65W
02/28/2009                   TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROOFS OFF HOMES

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TY TY                   31.47N 83.65W
02/28/2009                   TIFT               GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL VEHICLES OVERTURNED. POWER OUTAGE. TRAFFIC LIGHTS
            OUT.

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW TY TY             31.49N 83.66W
02/28/2009                   WORTH              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOFS BLOWN OFF AND TREES DOWN ON TY TY SYCAMORE ROAD.

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIFTON                  31.47N 83.51W
02/28/2009                   TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0323 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW ALAPAHA            31.40N 83.25W
02/28/2009                   BERRIEN            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN OVER HIGHWAY 82 AT MILE MARKER 12.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAINBRIDGE              30.91N 84.58W
02/28/2009                   DECATUR            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N CAIRO               30.98N 84.21W
02/28/2009                   GRADY              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SNEADS                  30.71N 84.92W
02/28/2009                   JACKSON            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES SNAPPED. PARTIAL ROOF OFF SCHOOL.

0623 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 W MINEOLA             30.91N 83.36W
02/28/2009                   LOWNDES            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED ON I-75 AT MILE MARKER 23.

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N LEESBURG            31.75N 84.17W
02/28/2009                   LEE                GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A MOBILE HOME WAS MOVED OFF ITS FOUNDATION.

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N CUFFIETOWN          31.78N 83.82W
02/28/2009                   WORTH              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF LIFTED OFF A HOME ON GLEATON ROAD.

0840 PM     HAIL             NNW NEW HOPE            30.95N 85.88W
02/28/2009  E1.75 INCH       HOLMES             FL   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

GODSEY