Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1134 AM EDT THU APR 2 2009

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH 103 CONTINUES THROUGH 3 PM EDT...

...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...

.UPDATE...POPS WERE RAISED TO 100 N AN W OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
CHARACTER WILL BE STRATIFORM WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TS NW OF THE
LINE THROUGH 2 PM. FROM THE LINE SEWD ISOLATED TS+ CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD. WE ALSO RAISED THE QPF FORECAST TO THE LATEST HPC AND THEN
ENHANCED IT FURTHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SW-NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH IS SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL STILL RESULT IN
TRAINING.

.MARINE...WINDS ARE ALREADY AT ADVISORY LEVELS AND SEAS WILL RESPOND
TO CRITERIA LEVELS (7 FT) SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE W BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND DROP TO CAUTION LEVELS.
SEAS WILL NOT DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AFTERNOON WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ION THE DHN VCNTY WHERE MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN AND VFR
CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 03Z AT DHN AND 08Z
AT VLD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...RH VALUES MAY APPROACH 35
PERCENT FOR A HOUR OR TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE EXTREMELY SOGGY FUELS OUT THERE. WE ARE
FORECASTING SUFFICIENT DURATIONS OF LOW RH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA
IN OUR FL ZONES ON SAT...BUT AGAIN COMMON SENSE WOULD DICTATE THAT
VERY WET FUELS WOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE DANGER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CHIPOLA AT ALTHA IS NOW FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE OF 30 FT BY 1 AM CDT TONIGHT. WITH A CREST OF 30.3 FT ON
FRI. ON THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT HAVANA...THE STAGES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING...BUT AN UPTURN IS FORECAST WITH A CREST JUST UNDER A FOOT
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUN MORNING. THE UPSTREAM GAGE AT CONCORD
WILL REMAIN ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST.
THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE REMAINS A GOOD 4 FT ABOVE MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE AND WILL NOT CREST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT THU APR 2 2009

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL THETA-E SURGE IS PROGGED BY GFS/NAM TO MOVE TO THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS RIDGE
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. JUST ABOUT EVERY
POSSIBLE GUIDANCE SOLUTION HAS NOW ZEROED IN ON A SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE IMPULSE BECOMING ESTABLISHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL CORRIDOR SETTING UP BETWEEN PANAMA
CITY AND CROSS CITY AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
SOUTHERN GA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTIVE MCS IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
DURING THE MIDDLE/LATER MORNING HOURS AS THE OVERALL DYNAMICS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

NORTH OF THE WARM-FRONT THIS MORNING THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO BE
SURFACE BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE ZONE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER ONE CAN ALREADY ARGUE THAT IT IS PUSHING
ASHORE. WITH THIS IN MIND THE INITIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA (NORTH OF I-10) MAY BE LIMITED TO MAINLY LARGE
HAIL...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BE
55-65KTS WHICH IS PLENTY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND
LARGE HAIL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
THREAT IS ALSO A LARGE CONCERN WITH THIS QUASI-LINEAR MCS AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
TOTAL THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD 1-2
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(JUST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONE).

THE THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INCREASES
DRASTICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE OVERHEAD AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO HANG UP JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH SURFACE
BASED STORMS ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTH...AND A MORE ELEVATED VARIETY
FURTHER NORTH. KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE INTO TONIGHT
WITH 55-70KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING
EITHER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRODUCING 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND 800-1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA BORDER. LATEST SREF PROBS SHOWING A WIDE
SWATH WHERE THE CRAVEN PARAMETER IS REACHING AT LEAST 20000. THIS IS
A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALL SEVERE
MODES ARE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY WARM
FRONT.

WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE THREAT ENDING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE MAIN THREAT
TO END ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH STORMS EXITING THE I-75
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FAIR AND DRIER
WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AT THE BEACHES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED
ALOFT BY A POTENT UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CNTRL CONUS
...WITH DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN STATES...AND
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OFF MARITIME CANADA.
THIS LEAVES LOCAL AREA UNDER SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A
PLEASANT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

GIVEN THIS FAST MOVING PATTERN...LOCAL WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE ON SUN. CNTRL CONUS ENERGY DIGS RAPIDLY E/SE WITH
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ERN CONUS AND THEN SOUTHEAST
CONUS ON SUN NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE
LOW ASSOCD WITH CNTRL PLAINS ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OH RIVER VALLEY ON SUN TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUN...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE N/CENTRAL GULF COAST SUN AFTN AND THEN
BISECTING CWA SUN NIGHT. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE EXTENDS FROM
COLD FRONT EWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST DURING THE AFTN. A
PRONOUNCED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF
WARM BOUNDARY NOTICEABLY RAISING PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ELEVATED STORMS BACK TO THE
FORECAST BY SUN AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SUN EVE/NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONT
PROGGED TO LIFT N/NE INTO ATLC OFF GA/SC COAST AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD SET UP POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WX (IN ADDITION TO MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SITUATION).

ECMWF/GFS THEN BOTH HAVE THE COLD FRONT PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY SPRING HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU WED. COOL TEMPS MAY
OFFSET OTHERWISE RED FLAG TYPE AIRMASS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY
APPROACH WED NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS ON THURS.

MID CHC POPS SUN AND HIGH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT THEN NIL POPS THRU WED
WITH SMALL CHC POPS ON THURS. AS FAR AS TEMPS...AT OR ABOVE CLIMO
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG FRONT. THEN WITH STRONG COLD
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...TEMPS PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW CLIMO MON THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING AND HIGHS NEAR 60 IN
COLDEST SPOTS. TEMPS BEGIN TO INCH UP WED AND APPROXIMATE CLIMO ON
THURS AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRAIGHTENS
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AT TIME REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AND SHOULD REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING
FRIDAY MORNING...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND THE CURRENT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND FRIDAY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF FOR SATURDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
COULD PRODUCE STRONG ND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES MAY APPROACH 35 PERCENT FOR A HOUR OR TWO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ALREADY SATURATED CWA TODAY....MORE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS MANY AREA RIVER BASINS.
THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS NEAR AND ALONG AREA RIVERS ARE URGED TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION ...AND
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS SHOULD EVACUATIONS BECOME NECESSARY.

FOR THE LATEST STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION PLEASE SEE OUR LOCAL
ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION SERVICE WEB PAGE AT

HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  76  59  79  49  82 /  90  70   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  76  60  75  53  76 /  90  60   0   0   0
DOTHAN       76  55  74  48  82 /  90  60   0   0   0
ALBANY       75  56  75  47  82 /  90  70   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     76  61  79  50  82 /  90  80  10   0   0
CROSS CITY   79  65  79  50  83 /  80  80  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
     TURNER...WORTH.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
     COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...GULF.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ALL MARINE ZONES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...MROCZKA/BLOCK
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
531 AM EDT THU APR 2 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-030815-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
531 AM EDT THU APR 2 2009 /431 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER TO BE UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS EVEN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE THREAT AND COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
BORDER WITH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 3
TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HIGHEST THREAT SHOULD BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
BEACHES OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SURF IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 7
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SURF
AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING FRIDAY MORNING...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED BE EXTENDED PAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A RATHER CHILLY AIRMASS FOR APRIL WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
STILL A WAYS OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

14-MROCZKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
136 PM EDT THU APR 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     FLOOD            CHAIRES CROSSROADS      30.42N 84.12W
04/02/2009                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOOD WATER COVERING THE ROAD AT HENRY MOSS CIRCLE.

0126 PM     FLOOD            TALLAHASSEE             30.44N 84.28W
04/02/2009                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FRANKLIN BLVD CLODED SOUTHBOUND DUE TO FLOODING. LAKE
            ELLA ROAD IS ALSO CLOSED DUE FLOODING. KELLEARNY WAY IS
            RETAINING WATER.

&&

WOOL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
203 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

FLZ007>010-021900-
COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-INLAND WALTON-WASHINGTON-
103 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR HOLMES...WALTON AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

AT 1259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTA ROSA BEACH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANTA ROSA BEACH BY 115 PM CDT.
  BONIFAY BY 150 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN HOLMES...WALTON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF SANTA ROSA BEACH...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

FLZ028-029-034-021945-
DIXIE-LAFAYETTE-TAYLOR-
241 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE...LAFAYETTE AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYO TO
17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STEINHATCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STEINHATCHEE BY 250 PM EDT.
  CROSS CITY BY 310 PM EDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

FLZ010-011-022030-
JACKSON-WASHINGTON-
238 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
75 MPH.

PEOPLE IN JACKSON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
MARIANNA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT THU APR 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             MOSSY HEAD              30.74N 86.32W
04/02/2009  E1.75 INCH       WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

GAZ127-129-145-146-022115-
COLQUITT-MITCHELL-TIFT-WORTH-
430 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR COLQUITT...
MITCHELL...TIFT AND WORTH COUNTIES IN SOUTH GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMILLA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 65 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DOERUN BY 440 PM EDT.
  POULAN BY 450 PM EDT.
  TY TY BY 455 PM EDT.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY