Mesoscale Discussion 49

Issued

Jan 27, 2009, 2:55 AM CST (08:55 UTC)

Expired

Jan 27, 2009, 8:00 AM CST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Norman radar (KTLX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 270856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270855 
OKZ000-TXZ000-271400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX AND MUCH OF OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 270855Z - 271400Z

SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING PRODUCING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX.

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE NETWORK TRENDS REFLECT AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE-TYPE MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OK. AHEAD OF A PROGRESSING SOUTHWEST
STATES POSITIVE TILT TROUGH...GRADUALLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AMIDST A SOUTHEAST OOZING BAROCLINIC ZONE /COMBINED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WINTER PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TX AND MUCH OF OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...VIA BOTH 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS AND
MORE RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BOTH FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET. SLEET SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK TO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
OK...ATTRIBUTABLE TO 1) STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND 2)
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MORE COMMON
NEARER THE OK/TX BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST OK. RUC SOUNDINGS WITH UP TO
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE BASED AROUND/ABOVE 700 MB WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHTNING PRODUCING POTENTIAL...WITH CONVECTION
LOCALLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.

..GUYER.. 01/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   36739482 34489469 33729620 32769857 33749982 35279960
            36029801 36739482

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2009Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2009Every mesoscale discussion in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.