Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2009

Mesoscale Discussion 2113

October 15, 200936 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 15, 2009, 8:15 PM EDT for 36 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 15, 2009, 8:15 PM EDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: Oct 15, 2009, 9:45 PM EDT
In force: 90 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 36 counties

Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Evans County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Turner County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2701 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 614 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.7
Supercell composite: 8.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 160016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160015 
GAZ000-160145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 160015Z - 160145Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN GA TONIGHT.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A CLUSTER OF TSTMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER TODAY OVER NRN/CNTRL AL
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...EXTENDING FROM CRISP TO RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN
SRN GA AS OF 00Z.  SYSTEM MOVEMENT WAS 295/25 KT.  A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITHIN EVOLVING
QLCS...GENERALLY PROPAGATING SEWD WITHIN TRAILING LINE SEGMENT.  00Z
JAX SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS...FEATURING A VERY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 2.3 INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  AREA VWPS
SUGGEST THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  0-1
KM BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER /20-25 KT/...BUT GIVEN THE
MOIST/LOW LCL AIR MASS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  

THE GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY MORE ORGANIZED WIND/TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31428466 32088428 32308270 32128161 31568127 30938169
            30888339 31428466

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2009 Every mesoscale discussion in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.