Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2009

Mesoscale Discussion 2

January 3, 200915 counties in Minnesota; 7 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 3, 2009, 6:29 AM CST for 15 counties in Minnesota; 7 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 3, 2009, 6:29 AM CST (12:29 UTC)
Expired: Jan 3, 2009, 10:30 AM CST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 22 counties

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 743 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 031229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031229 
MNZ000-NDZ000-031630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 031229Z - 031630Z

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO ERN ND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE BY 15Z.
THEREAFTER...THIS HEAVIER SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD
ACROSS NWRN MN BY LATE MORNING.

AT 12Z...AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR STRETCHED
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND SSEWD INTO ERN SD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE LOWER 4 KM OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLES DIGITS...THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFTING ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PW/S BETWEEN .4 AND .5 INCH. SINCE THE
AIR MASS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE AND SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED...LARGE SNOWFLAKES ARE LIKELY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOWFLAKES DEVELOPING AROUND 600 MB...WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INVERTED TROUGH ...WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC LIFTING.

..IMY.. 01/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47409393 46109625 46209750 47129827 48479766 48929650
            48509389 47409393

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 3, 12:34 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Beltrami, Big Stone, Cass, Chippewa, Clay and 26 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2009 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2009 Every mesoscale discussion in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.