Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000 
WWUS85 KSLC 291514
RFWSLC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
914 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

UTZ420-423-433>435-438-439-445>449-292200-
/O.CON.KSLC.FW.W.0015.090929T1800Z-090930T0300Z/
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION CANYON-GRAND FLAT/ROAN AND BOOK CLIFFS-
ARCHES NATIONAL PARK AND SURROUNDING AREAS-
CANYONS NATIONAL PARK AND NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY-
914 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 420...423...433 THROUGH 435...438...439...AND 445
THROUGH 449.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF UTAH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DUE
TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

000 
WWUS85 KSLC 291614 CCA
RFWSLC

RED FLAG WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1012 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

UTZ420-423-433>435-438-439-445>449-292315-
/O.COR.KSLC.FW.W.0015.090929T1800Z-090930T0300Z/
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION CANYON-GRAND FLAT/ROAN AND BOOK CLIFFS-
ARCHES NATIONAL PARK AND SURROUNDING AREAS-
CANYONS NATIONAL PARK AND NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY-
1012 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 420...423...433 THROUGH 435...438...439...AND 
445 THROUGH 449...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 420...423...433 THROUGH 435...438...439...AND 445
THROUGH 449.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF UTAH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DUE
TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

000 
WWUS85 KSLC 292127
RFWSLC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
327 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

UTZ420-423-433>435-439-300600-
/O.EXT.KSLC.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090930T0600Z/
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION CANYON-
327 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT 
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 420
...423...433 THROUGH 435...AND 439...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 420...
423...433 THROUGH 435...AND 439. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS 
OF 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF UTAH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

UTZ438-445>449-300600-
/O.EXT.KSLC.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090930T1800Z/
HENRY MOUNTAINS-GRAND FLAT/ROAN AND BOOK CLIFFS-
ARCHES NATIONAL PARK AND SURROUNDING AREAS-
CANYONS NATIONAL PARK AND NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY-
327 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 438 AND
445 THROUGH 449...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 438 AND
445 THROUGH 449.

THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 
MPH RANGE AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. ALREADY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING AN END TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

000 
WWUS85 KSLC 300550
RFWSLC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1150 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

UTZ420-423-433>435-439-300700-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090930T0600Z/
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION CANYON-
1150 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 420...423...433 THROUGH 435 AND 439.

HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO RISE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH.
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH. AS A
RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

UTZ438-445>449-301400-
/O.CON.KSLC.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090930T1800Z/
HENRY MOUNTAINS-GRAND FLAT/ROAN AND BOOK CLIFFS-
ARCHES NATIONAL PARK AND SURROUNDING AREAS-
CANYONS NATIONAL PARK AND NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY-
1150 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 438 AND 445 THROUGH 449 FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 438 AND 445 THROUGH 449 FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. ALREADY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING AN END TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

000 
WWUS85 KSLC 301045
RFWSLC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
445 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

UTZ438-445>449-301800-
/O.CON.KSLC.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090930T1800Z/
HENRY MOUNTAINS-GRAND FLAT/ROAN AND BOOK CLIFFS-
ARCHES NATIONAL PARK AND SURROUNDING AREAS-
CANYONS NATIONAL PARK AND NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN SAN JUAN COUNTY-
445 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 438 AND 445 THROUGH 449 FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 438 AND 445 THROUGH 449 FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. ALREADY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL NOON TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1128 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. A COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO STRIKING CHANGES TO THE SCHEDULED CHANGE IN
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH TRUDGING
SOUTH OFF THE BRITCOL COASTLINE EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
REGION. GFS/EC CONTINUE TO PLACE A DIRECT HIT 0OVER NORTHERN UTAH
WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
GREAT BASIN STATES.

HAVE JUST ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN VALLEY
AREAS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE PRE FRONTAL 700MB SOUTHWESTERLIES
INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
AND POTENTIAL FOR A 20 TO 30 TEMP DROP FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CROSS WIND CONDITIONS FOR EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE VICINITY OF BURN
AREAS AND CONSIDERABLE IMPACT TO WIND SENSITIVE OPERATIONS. SEE
LATEST HEADLINES FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON ANTICIPATED WIND SPEEDS
AND IMPACTS DURING THE ANTICIPATED EVENT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHIFT WILL BE SPENT ADDRESSING NEED FOR
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NORTHERN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000FT...AS STORM STRUCTURE REMAINS PRIME FOR A
SUSTAINED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
UTAH. A FRONTOGENIC COLD FRONT...DEEP LIFT AIDED BY A COLD POOL OF
-24 TO -26 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...DEEP MOISTURE...AND
GOOD OROGRAPHIC STRUCTURE IN WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS FOR THESE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY NORTHWEST FLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...700 TEMPS/WET BULB ZEROS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY AREAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING DURING HIGHER
INTENSITY PERIODS IN LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS ALL INDICATE
700 MB FLOW OF 30-40 KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED.

WITH 00Z RUNS...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM
AND THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT. GFS/EC INDICATE THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TOMORROW
EVENING...CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER...AND MOVING THROUGH THE WHOLE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TIMING IN THE NAM SOLUTION REMAINS ABOUT SIX HOURS
SLOWER. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS...BUT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...WEDNESDAY MORNING MINS WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
THE GOING FORECAST. BECAUSE THE MINS ON WEDNESDAY DEPEND GREATLY
ON THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

REGARDLESS OF TIMING...ALL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTICALLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE ENTIRE
STATE. BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP 20-30F FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...RESULTING IN MAXES UP TO 20F BELOW
CLIMO. WITH VERY GOOD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...RESULTING IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP
SHOWERS GOING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL PREDICTED
700 MB TEMPS. 00Z ECMWF INDICATES -6C...WHILE THEY GET AS LOW AS
-8C IN THE GFS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO BRING
SNOW TO BENCH LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH...WHILE IF THE EC
SOLUTION PANS OUT IT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND ABOVE. EITHER WAY...BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE 7000 FT.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT. EC/GFS
SHOW WEAK RIDGING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY STILL DISAGREE WITH THE
DETAILS...EITHER SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE WET WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE
CLIMO POPS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAINLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH
01-03Z TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN ENHANCED
DRAINAGE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL TUESDAY EVENING
SHIFTING THE STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SCHEDULED TO REACH UTAH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM/DRY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NUMEROUS FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ALREADY IN
EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED TO RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRE DISTRICTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RH VALUES...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED WIND SPEED.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NRN UTAH...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR UTZ003-
     UTZ005-UTZ014-UTZ015-UTZ016-UTZ019.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ003-
     UTZ004-UTZ005-UTZ015-UTZ016-UTZ019-UTZ020.

WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MERRILL
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
459 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2009

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-291100-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
459 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS...AND RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY.

A COLD PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY AND INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY COOLING 30 TO 35 DEGREES OR
MORE FROM MONDAYS HIGHS.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM OVER MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET AND COULD BE LOCALLY LOWER. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHO WOULD BE
IMPACTED BY SNOW AND COLDER WEATHER SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS
FOR THIS EVENT.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)