Wind Advisory 6, NWS San Angelo, TX

Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH A CROSS PLAINS TO SAN
ANGELO TO WEST OF SONORA LINE. RADAR AND THE PUBLIC HAVE REPORTED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE DRYLINE SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRY LINE ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST AIR
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...
READ 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...VIRGA IS BRINGING DOWN SOME VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY AS
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE EAST THE THREAT OF THESE STRONG WINDS
DIMINISHES...BUT HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT KABI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. BUT...DONT EXPECT THESES STRONG WINDS TO EFFECT KSOA...KBBD
AND KJCT. KDYX VAD SHOWS A 45-50 KNOT LLJ ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...SO HAVE INCLUDED WS AT ALL TERMINALS
UNTIL MID MORNING...THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...AS THE DRYLINE MOVES TO THE EAST LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WINDS WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 9Z ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BUT ATTM
THINK THESE STORMS WILL STAY EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009/

UPDATE...
WIND AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED. BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
ALSO...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
BIG COUNTRY AND EASTERN HEARTLAND COUNTIES LOOK QUESTIONABLE AT
BEAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS...ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DECIDED TO EXPAND 20 POPS AREA SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO INCLUDE HASKELL COUNTY AND JONES COUNTY
TO MAINLY BLEND BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO THE WIND AND WIND GUST GRIDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LATEST RUN AND 18Z NAM DATA INDICATE
FRONT MAY BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WE WERE THINKING EARLIER TODAY.
THUS...ADJUSTED THESE TWO FIELDS TO BE CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST NAM AND TO BLEND BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK. THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES. LATEST ZONE
AND POINT FORECAST PRODUCTS REFLECTS THESE CHANGES.

23/HUBER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...

READ 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN WINDS WILL WEAKEN
A LITTLE BEFORE A 45 TO 50 KNOT LLJ JET DEVELOPS AND THEN WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS....AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...APPROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN APPROACH THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009/

SHORT TERM...

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR REGION AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS/DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. WE HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. THIS LOW WILL REDEVELOP/MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE A QUICK BUT RATHER
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CONTINUING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT...BUT THINKING IS THAT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. A WINDOW WILL EXIST WHERE LOW
TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE BETTER ALIGNED...WITH MIXING EFFECTS
FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS. WE MAY NEED A LAKE WIND OR GENERAL WIND
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. WILL LET THE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE ON THIS. MOST OF THE WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

19

LONG TERM...

AN ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR WEST CENTRAL TX THIS PATTERN IS TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING THE AREA PRECIPITATION.
INSTEAD...WE ARE LEFT WITH DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES AND LOTS OF WIND
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM THAT PASSES THRU THE PLAINS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS WILL BE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF WIND AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARM AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS THE DRYLINE PUNCHES
EAST THRU WEST CENTRAL TX WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
A DEEP TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO NOSE DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTH TO
THE WESTERN GULF. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND BEGINS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK LOW AS THE LOW
TRACK IS STILL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL TX IS IN THE DRY
INTRUSION.

LACY

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS.
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING AN EARLY DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF VERY DRY
AIR. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENABLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...
WHERE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING.

LATER THIS WEEK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 67  44  81  58  84 /  10   0   0   0  10
SAN ANGELO 	 72  41  81  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION 	 75  38  78  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...COKE...COLEMAN...
CONCHO...CROCKETT...IRION...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...
MENARD...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...STERLING...SUTTON...
TOM GREEN.

&&

15/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
259 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH A MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF ANOTHER POTENT
STORM SYSTEM TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
AGAIN ACROSS AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.