Wind Advisory 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT
THE SOUTHERLY WIND UP TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE SEEN 8 MB PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT... SO THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS  FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR
CWA...FROM 10Z-18Z AS 25 TO 35 MPH NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
ATTM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY
10Z AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BY 14Z. WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAY
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO WARM. A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...
HE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS MEANS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
MIDWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SO WITH THE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AND WARM 850 TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP ON SUNDAY BY MID WEEK AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THURSDAY OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.
ATTM FROPA APPEARS TO BE DRY...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON
AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BY
THE AFTERNOON  WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WHICH
IS BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

WITH THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID WEEK...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE FIRE DANGER DURING THIS PERIOD. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS...HOWEVER...
WINDS ATTM ARE FORECASTED TO BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT WITH A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 54  26  67  38  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO 	 55  26  67  36  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION 	 59  24  67  33  72 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...FISHER...HASKELL...
IRION...JONES...MCCULLOCH...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...
SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...TOM GREEN.

&&

99/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2009

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212130-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
326 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...AND HEARTLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY VEGETATION BRING HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TOMORROW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.