Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
327 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 00Z. DRYLINE TO THE WEST IS FAIRLY
DIFFUSE...WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND DO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST...AREA OF CONVECTION WILL EXPAND AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST AS
WELL. GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF EVEN THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY. BUT WILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT BACK SOUTHWEST DOWN THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY TO WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE. HAVE INCREASED POP
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. SPC SEEMS TO HAVE THE
SEVERE ISSUES COVERED WELL...SO WILL NOT REITERATE.

FRONT SHOULD GET A CONVECTIVE PUSH OVERNIGHT...BOOSTING IT FARTHER
SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NOT SURE HOW FAR IT WILL COME...OR
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LIKELY TOMORROW...HOW UNSTABLE THE
AIR MASS WILL BE. BUT DID BOOST POPS SLIGHTLY AND BRING THEM FARTHER
SOUTH AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING ALONG
AND BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST LATE MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RAISE TUESDAY MORNING LOWS INTO THE 60S...WITH TUESDAY HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 80S. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORM A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MENTION RAINFALL IN
THE ZONES WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
ASSOCIATED BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE AREA.

AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 63  72  55  67  51 /  20  30  50  30  10
SAN ANGELO 	 66  79  59  76  52 /  10  20  40  20  10
JUNCTION 	 69  83  65  78  53 /  10  10  40  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST RISK AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROBY TO ANSON
TO BAIRD LINE.

THE ENTIRE AREA OF STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
...PERHAPS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND...INCLUDING
SWEETATER...ABILENE...AND BROWNWOOD

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRODUCING MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...