Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 0Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUING TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE...AND INCREASED
COVERAGE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME TERMINALS MAY SEE OFF AND
ON STORMS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ABI AREA AROUND 2Z TO 3Z...KSJT BY 5Z TO
6Z AND JCT AFTER 9Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CIGS AT BEST...LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER ALL OF COUNTY
WARNING AREA...EXCEPT CROCKETT COUNTY.

DISCUSSION...
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXTENDING FARTHER WEST...
WILL SEND OUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT CROCKETT COUNTY.

RAINFALL SHOULD END IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY BY 7 AM
FRIDAY MORNING...AND REDEFINITION TO TAKE OUT THOSE AREAS OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009/

SHORT TERM...
.POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WAS BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK AT 3 PM...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20-25 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE BIG
COUNTRY TO LUBBOCK. MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN WC TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCE OCCURS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS
STRONG MID/UPPER LIFT WILL MOVE INTO WC TEXAS AROUND 7 PM
TONIGHT...JUST AS THE FRONT ALSO MOVES INTO THE REGION. HASKELL
AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES ARE ALREADY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
758 UNTIL 10 PM...AND EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 50-60
(INCREASING UP TO 100 KTS)...AND CAPES OF 1400-1800 J/KG SHOULD
HELP CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN N ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY AS STORMS TRAIN NE AT 45 MPH ALONG THE PATH OF
PREVIOUS STORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW HILL
COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND FROM 7 PM TONIGHT TO NOON
FRIDAY.

NAM HAS A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND BETTER FRONTAL POSITION THAN THE
GFS. SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD MOVING ALONG A STERLING CITY...
SWEETWATER...ROBY LINE AROUND 7 PM...THEN TO SAN ANGELO...ABILENE
LINE 10-11 PM. FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG A JUNCTION TO BROWNWOOD LINE
AROUND 3 AM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SE SECTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM...
NAM MODEL...WHICH IS BETTER WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR...CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 IN THE BIG COUNTRY
SUNDAY...WITH 50S AND 60S FARTHER SOUTH. I DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW
AS THE NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES SUNDAY...BUT IT IS AROUND 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. SUDDEN CHANGE OF WEATHER
COULD STRESS SOME ANIMALS...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SOME LIGHT RAIN.
HAVE AROUND 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN HOT AND WARM NEXT
WEEK. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES. FORECAST IS ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 49  60  41  71  42 /  80  10  10   0  20
SAN ANGELO 	 56  69  49  78  46 /  80  10  10   0  10
JUNCTION 	 64  72  47  80  51 /  90  30  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...FISHER...
HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...
NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...SHACKELFORD...
STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...TOM GREEN.

&&

08/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
314 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-092015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
314 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY...THE ENTIRE AREA
OF STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. AS
STORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE LIKELY. SOME AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA
LINE WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ALTHOUGH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...THERE IS A THREAT
OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SEASONS FIRST
FROST IN A FEW LOCATIONS. PEOPLE WITH COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
ANIMALS WILL WANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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