Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TORNADO WATCH #378 COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED SURFACE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH STRADDLES OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
DRYLINE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. APPEARS
THE DRYLNIE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX EASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF IT REACHING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA COVERED BY
THE WATCH...WHERE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING.

DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AT LEAST A PARTIAL RETREAT TONIGHT
BEFORE MIXING EASTWARD AGAIN ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE DRYLINE WILL REACH OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
WITH STRONG THERMAL RIDGING...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
CONTINUING ON SATURDAY...FOR A POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WHICH THE GFS TAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG THERMAL RIDGING PATTERN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
US DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN US...FORMING
A CLOSED LOW AND DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORSEEN DURING THAT TIME. THERMAL
RIDGING PATTERN IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKN AND SHIFT WESTWARD.
WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO EASE BACK A FEW DEGREES...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 70 100  74  99  74 /  30  10  10  20  20
SAN ANGELO 	 71 102  73 101  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
JUNCTION 	 73 101  72 101  74 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-122015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
302 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...HEARTLAND...
AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE WATCH AREA...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY...AND ALSO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 TO 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AREA RESIDENTS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF POSSIBLE...AND DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED ACROSS THE HEARTLAND...AND IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
257 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

TXZ128-139-140-112100-
CALLAHAN TX-COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
257 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
CALLAHAN...COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 257 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 10 MILES WEST OF CROSS PLAINS...OR
ABOUT 18 MILES NORTH OF COLEMAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CROSS PLAINS BY 325 PM CDT
  CROSS CUT BY 330 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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