Tornado Warning 63, NWS Shreveport, LA

000 
WWUS54 KSHV 150901
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

OKC089-TXC387-150930-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0063.000000T0000Z-091015T0930Z/
MCCURTAIN OK-RED RIVER TX-
401 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR RED RIVER
AND MCCURTAIN COUNTIES...

AT 400 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
TRACK A SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS STORM 
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF BRYARLY...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
CLARKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HARRIS...HAWORTH...BOKHOMA...GOODLAKE AND MOON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 9502 3390 9488 3383 9455 3369 9465
      3370 9474 3356 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0900Z 298DEG 29KT 3383 9488

$$

22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
916 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  A
QUICK GLANCE AT MID-EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM ARDMORE OKLAHOMA...EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD YAZOO
CITY MISSISSIPPI.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT
OUR CORNER OF THE WORLD IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY START PARALLELING THE FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  RIGHT
NOW...I BELIEVE ANY RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED FOR THIS REASON.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
DENSE FOG.  OBSERVATIONS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 11-3.9 MICRON INFRARED IMAGERY...SHOW WIDESPREAD
LOW CEILINGS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET.  LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG...HOWEVER...REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.  BIG
QUESTION IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEFORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPS.  GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TIMES...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OR MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS/TEXT.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ANOTHER UPDATE COULD
BE ISSUED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

MOST OF THE CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MAINLY COSMETIC IN NATURE.
I HAVE SIMPLIFIED WORDING IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS AND REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF EVENING WORDING.  OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS
APPEARED TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.  AN
UPDATED SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /21/

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FOUR STATE REGION IS ON SOUTH SIDE
OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH STRETCHES JUST TO THE NORTH OF A DEQ TO
ELD LINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OVC CONDITIONS WITH BASES LESS
THAN 1KFT TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BECOME
SCT TO BKN TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. WITH SEVERAL STATIONS
ALREADY REPORTING NEAR SATURATION CONDITIONS...EXPECT THAT FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH ALL AIRPORTS DOWN TO 1/2SM TO
1SM BY 15/10Z. CEILINGS WILL FILL IN AND LOWER AS WELL...WITH CLOUD
BASES FALLING TO THE 100 TO 500 FOOT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 15/15Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO BE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH
GUSTS OCCASSIONALLY AS HIGH AS 20KTS. /18/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  80  55  69  50 /  40  50  30   0   0
MLU  69  82  54  62  49 /  30  60  40   0   0
DEQ  63  69  47  66  45 /  70  40  10   0   0
TXK  68  73  50  66  47 /  60  50  10   0   0
ELD  66  76  50  63  47 /  60  60  20   0   0
TYR  70  77  53  71  52 /  40  30  20   0   0
GGG  69  78  54  71  51 /  40  30  20   0   0
LFK  72  88  57  74  54 /  20  30  30  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC FORECASTER... D. BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER... FILLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1205 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS...INTO
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEATING...AND THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A NATCHITOCHES...TO WINNFIELD
AND JENA LOUISIANA LINE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TRAVERSING EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
LOUISIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE FLOODING SEEN OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

AFTERWORDS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS...AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.

15