Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
825 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ON THE HOME FRONT BUT THAT WILL BE CHANGING RAPIDLY
A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTION NOW
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO A SQUALL LINE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. STILL SEEING SOME ROTATION IN A FEW
OF THESE STORMS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE LINE MOVES
CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BECOME A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE EMBEDDED STRONGER
CORES AS WELL. TOR WATCH #10 WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE
EXTENDED OF COURSE AND LIKELY PUSHED FARTHER EAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGES IN THE GRIDS ARE NECESSARY.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS NOW WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS...THE SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER OUR
AREA AND MOVE INTO KTYR/KGGG 04Z TO 05Z. KSHV AND KTXK AROUND 06Z OR
SO. KELD AND KLFK AROUND 08Z AND KMLU JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.  TEMPO
GROUPS FOR LOW CEILINGS/VSBY...HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUST LOOK TO AFFECT ALL SITES. MUCH BETTER DAY TOMORROW WITH
SKIES PARTING AND WINDS VEERING SW DAYBREAK TO NW BY MIDDAY AROUND
15KTS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  71  45  69  54 /  80   0   0   0  10
MLU  57  71  44  67  52 /  80  20   0   0  10
DEQ  52  69  37  68  44 /  80   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  69  44  67  51 /  90   0   0   0  10
ELD  51  69  40  68  48 /  80   0   0   0  10
TYR  50  72  46  71  53 /  80   0   0   0   0
GGG  50  71  45  70  52 /  80   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  74  45  75  54 /  80   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017.

OK...NONE.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

13/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM TYLER...
TEXAS...TO SHREVEPORT...LOUISIANA...TO EL DORADO...ARKANSAS.  A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN HOUR.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...
JET STREAM DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE.

ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF A MINEOLA TEXAS TO IDABEL OKLAHOMA
LINE.  THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL POSE THE GREATEST
RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS EVENING.  AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING EL
DORADO...MONROE...AND JENA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUP...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION TONIGHT.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     HAIL             10 S TYLER              32.18N 95.30W
02/10/2009  M0.88 INCH       SMITH              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN FLINT TX.

1130 PM     HAIL             TYLER                   32.33N 95.30W
02/10/2009  M1.00 INCH       SMITH              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HEALTH SCIENCES CENTER.

&&

ASTEVENS